Today, Rebecca Teltscher and Stockchase Insights commented about whether FTS-T, CRWV-Q, WCC-N, ALA-T, PBH-T, ARE-T, DOO-T, T-T, AQN-T, ENB-T, BIP.UN-T, EMA-T, CAE-T, ARX-T, TOU-T, TD-T, RY-T, AEM-T, ABX-T, BCE-T, FRU-T, CNQ-T are stocks to buy or sell.
A boring, stable utility. Pretty much discarded last year with people chasing the AI trend. Big move since January with the flight to safety. Outlook was upgraded from Negative to Stable. Good job reducing leverage. Florida just approved storm reparation costs from 2 hurricanes in 2024.
Management's doing what they said they would. It's a yield + growth play. Not sure why it's not performing as well as other utilities. Capital recyclers, and perhaps market prefers using capital for buy-and-hold projects. But they continue to execute their strategy well.
It's hard for a non-expert to get a handle on how embedded energy infrastructure in NA really is. A lot of the oil coming from Canada into the US can't easily be replaced. Even if the US does produce a lot of oil itself, there are many factors to consider: where does it need to go, where does it need to be refined, and what grade is it. It's not like an on/off switch.
Largest oil pipeline operator in Canada. Pipelines are still the cheapest and fastest way to transport. Cheaper than rails. From what she understands, it doesn't seem that the pipelines themselves will be hit by tariffs. Recent move in the CAD would mitigate any tariff impact; even if not, the US depends on oil in this pipeline, so volume likely wouldn't be disrupted. Yield is 6%.
Bounced off the bottom; actually one of the best-performing utilities because it traded so low for such a long time. Attempt to acquire Kentucky Power was bad timing with interest rates going up. Host of other issues, market penalized them, and it continues to do so.
But if you look at it today, it's working hard to transform itself to a pure-play distribution utility (similar to EMA or FTS). That's the cheapest type of utility to own. Sold renewable assets. Still owns hydro, but that's a small percentage of assets. Likes diversity of jurisdictions. About 10-20 rate cases under review; as they get approved, will see uptick in earnings. New CEO, activist investor.
Believes all the negative news is out of the name. If you have the patience, there's only upside from here. As company continues to execute, positive investor sentiment should come back. Different company than it was 2 years ago.
Good entry point as a long-term hold for income. Could never call this a high-growth stock. Lower-growth, stable, defensive name that owns critical infrastructure. Usually performs well during recessionary periods. Probably in best position among peers -- further along in fibre to the home buildout, better financial position, a bit more "growth" (as in 2% instead of 1%). Yield is 7%, with usually 2 increases a year.
Her firm likes to be really conservative with clients. If you get most of your return in the form of a dividend, then you're not relying as much on an increase in the stock price.
Underlying business is very discretionary. Underperformed this year and last. That's why she tries to stay away from discretionary names. Not a name to ever own. Can be so volatile. Consumers are strapped, Canadian economy is weak, US is weakening.
She likes to own names that are good through any market cycle. This is a name to possibly own in an up-market cycle, which we're clearly not in right now.
Welcome to the world of dividends! She invests in dividends for clients at any stage of investing, but understands the extra motivation for dividends and stability as a person inches toward retirement.
Last year, they were earning 4.8% on client funds invested in money market funds. This let them have the patience to ease into the market. Seeing more volatility in markets this year, which is good if you're seeking to deploy some cash. The yield on cash has come down significantly in the past year, especially in Canada with the BOC dropping rates. It's now only ~2.5%, and that's not enough to live on. So you're more attracted to investing in high-dividend-earning stocks.
Could we see more volatility in the market? Absolutely. She'd probably get 1/3 in now, and wait and see. On days when the market's taking a beating, buy more. And do it selectively. The pipeline space, for example, is still giving you about a 6% dividend yield. A name like Telus is also one to consider. Still some good opportunities for yield, without the crazy valuations. Selling some of those high-flying tech names at 30-50x PE and buying a utility at 20x PE, doesn't seem so expensive on a relative basis.
Stock's come off almost 40% YTD, a real opportunity to get in. Half of its construction projects are linked to utilities. Does a lot of nuclear construction, refurbishment, and ongoing maintenance. So the projects aren't as discretionary. Stock got ahead of itself, but then concerns about economy set in. Yield is 4.48%.
Government announcements abound with infrastructure and nuclear spending. Whether we're in a recession or not, doesn't expect governments to stop spending on transit projects and the like. Lots of opportunity for public and private spending.
A new position for clients this year. Consumer staple. Specialty foods (main segment) + food distribution to schools, hospitals, and restaurants. Operates under 60 different banners, so there's little brand risk. On a huge growth trajectory right now that's being discounted by the market. Yield is 4.42%.
Last few years spending big to increase US distribution. For example, one of its biggest customers in Canada is COST. With increased US presence, now has access to the US stores of COST as well. Through this, it can also change distribution, so not as much exposure to tariffs. Total exposure is less than 5%, and working to mitigate that even further.
Half utility, half gas processing. Both segments doing well. Utility side rate base is growing 8%, which is higher than others. Working on large propane export projects off the West Coast. A lot of gas producers are looking for capacity outside the US; Asian markets, for example, have higher pricing. Yield is 3.16%.
(Analysts’ price target is $39.50)WCC is a $7.8B business-to-business distribution, logistics services, and supply chain solutions company, which was originally founded in 1922. It mostly offers solutions to the construction, industrial, and OEM markets, as well as network infrastructure, security, and utility services. It pays a small 1.1% yield but it has a nice buyback program in place, sales growth has been strong over the years, but fairly volatile, and margins have expanded nicely. It generates strong cash flows and trades at an attractive valuation of 11.7X forward P/E. We think it looks interesting, but growth prospects over the next couple of years are somewhat muted. The leadership team is strong and given the company's extensive history, we are comfortable with the management team.
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We are quite shocked, frankly. 'Everybody' turned negative on CRWV in the weeks before it went public, and then it landed with a thud and a dud. Then, it goes up 41% yesterday. The float is quite thin, and some shareholders cannot sell for 180 days, and this can increase volatility. ARK Funds were buying this week. There was no news yesterday, but options are now listed on the stock and we expect it to be a popular stock with the retail/meme trading crowd. The big jump does not mean all is clear in the data centre space, but it is of course encouraging. Another example of how sentiment can swing wildly. We would still prefer the other data centre companies but it is one to watch. There are risks here, but also opportunities.
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Analysts tend to be conservative. It is a pretty solid, high-paying job, and they do not get much benefit from 'sticking their neck out' versus the crowd. Target prices and recommendations tend to be similar. They do not get fired if 'everyone else was also wrong' but if they are an outlier then their calls are more closely scrutinized. AT 19X earnings FTS still looks OK to us, and its positive momentum in a bad market we think is a strong sign as well. But, it is up 28% in a year, and we would not expect those types of returns on a regular basis. It is still a relatively slow-growth utility company.
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Fund Performance Metrics: Benchmark Holdings
Benchmark Holdings indicates the overlap between the portfolio holdings and the benchmark set for the portfolio. The ‘active’ measure in the third column measures the percentage of the portfolio, as position weight, that differs from the benchmark index. It is a metric quantifying the level of active management within a portfolio. While this metric might not give a whole lot to an investor, investors allocating to investments with a higher portion of ‘active’ holdings typically expect a differentiated return profile relative to a passive or a benchmark-driven portfolio.
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Management did exactly what it said it was going to. Increased margins on the defense side from about 4% to 8%. All the geopolitical risk doesn't hurt. Both civil and defense segments now doing well.