Its reputation has taken a hit this year due to Musk's highly polarizing involvement with Trump. This has taken the robotaxi story off the table, allowing Uber to roar. But robotaxis were never a threat to Uber in the first place. He still thinks Tesla has an edge given Musk's relationship with Trump, but he didn't expect this much public backlash against Musk/Tesla.
A lot of the market cap is in cash but the company is also going to be deploying that cash into data centers to facilitate their growth in the near future. The operational risk is more from an execution point of view and that the revenues aren't 'there yet'. So, while they have guided to a large ramp in revenues, they still need to show that they can actually deliver this revenue growth and as always, nothing is guaranteed on this front. On top of the operational risk it is also just a volatile stock which adds 'risks' and markets remain fairly skittish on the space since the Deepseek drama a few months back. We think it is interesting under $30. Valuation is a bit of a moving target from data providers, but if the company hits their recurring revenue guidance at year end of $750 million to $1 billion, it would be trading at something around EV/'Sales' of 3.5X to 4.5X.
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It is cheap at 10X earnings, with a 3.04% dividend. Momentum is good, with a 34% YTD gain. It has only lost money once in the past decade, and decent (10%+) growth is predicted. Prudential is on track to achieve its 10% (or higher) growth target for new-business profit (NBP), gross operating free surplus generation (OFSG), operating profit after tax (OPAT) and dividend per share. NBP gains will be driven by further strength at its flagship HK unit, led by active-agents expansion and a product-mix improvement toward health and protection policies. The latter will also be promoted across other key markets, along with the repricing of medical policies to bolster profitability. The mainland China unit could see a recovery in the new-business margin on strong sales of participating policies, despite the downturn in bond yields which lowered investment-return assumption. Robust new-business and cost-improvement effort will support OFSG and OPAT, the bases for dividend gains. We think it looks fine, but keep our first line above in mind, please.
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We would be comfortable with ZFH. Floating rate bonds, of course, may see lower distributions if rates fall, but do offer protection in the opposite scenario. Indicated yield is 5.64% and one year return +8.48%. We would consider it a solid, fairly conservative ETF for income. Fees are 0.45%.
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Debt Can Kill a Company
Endo International PLC filed for bankruptcy protection this week. This is the company that took over Canada’s Paladin Labs Inc. about a decade ago. Endo shares are down 91 per cent this year. The problem? Very high debt. Endo has US$8 billion in debt after a large acquisition spree. Cash flow in the past 12 months? Just US$80 million. It paid US$560 million in interest charges in the past 12 months.
Cineworld Group PLC this week said it was “considering” bankruptcy. The stock is down 95 per cent in the past year. This company tried to take over Cineplex Inc. in 2020, with about the worst timing a company could have (just prior to the COVID-19 shutdown). It had about US$8.9 billion in debt at the end of fiscal 2021 including lease liabilities, more than 27x its 12-month cash flow. Bausch Health Cos. Inc., once Canada’s largest company, this week retained advisers to help “map out its future.” Its stock is down 81 per cent this year. It has US$22 billion in debt, and cash flow of less than US$700 million.
The lesson here: Debt can kill a company, sometimes quickly. Make sure the companies you own can service their debt. Times are not always great, and a company must be able to survive before it can prosper.
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A tougher economy makes it harder. That said, Dell believes so; they've been in the PC business for 40 years and deserve the benefit of the doubt.