Today, Colin Cieszynski and Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether BNDX-Q, BSV-N, VYM-N, DGRO, ZFH-T, ZWC-T, ZWU-T, PRIV-N, ZCH-T, TMUS-Q, AEM-T, CCO-T, LUG-T, MRVL-Q, MRE-T, KEY-T, NFLX-Q, MFC-T, ZMID-T, CLS-T, TD-T, LYV-N, STZ-N, TRP-T, PPL-T, ENB-T, KKR-N, BN-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Looking at the multi-decade chart, TSX is in a long-term uptrend. Hard to say where it might top out. Previous peaks have been tied to panics in the market. It's something we need to keep an eye on as we move into this period of uncertainty where we don't know if there's going to be a recession in NA or not.
We are getting up near the high end of the long-term trading range. The TSX has had a good runup in recent months. Will probably have a pause at some point, especially as we're around that nice round number of 25,000, but hard to say exactly when.
Auto stocks are really struggling, both Canada and US, and they're right at the epicentre of this whole tariff battle. Beware the value trap -- something's gone down, looks cheap, but hasn't started going up yet. Chart doesn't look as though it's bottomed out yet.
Though cheap, it could still go lower. Whole sector might take time to build a base, as it's been beaten down so much. The auto sector really brought down the most recent Canadian retail sales numbers.
Came off quite significantly between December and March. Previous high was ~$85; the 50% retracement takes us to $72.50. This is where we saw some resistance in early February. Hard to say if it would get to $80. Usually, if there's a move in a stock, the countermove can often be about half of that.
Most charts are based on time. Point-and-figure charts take out the time element, and use price movement. At his firm, point-and-figure charting and analysis form the foundation of everything they do. He uses percentage charts.
Here's why. The charts use rows and columns, with each row being $1 (or 1%) and marked by an "X". So if the price goes up $5, that's 5 rows up and 5 X's. Before you get into the downtrend, which is marked by "O's", you need a reversal that's called a "3-box reversal". So, if you're going up and up and up, you need a 3-box reversal to tell you that there's been a real shift.
The idea is that the trend is your friend until you have a decisive turn back the other way. This filters out the day-to-day choppiness. You're trying to distill back down to the trend; otherwise, the day-to-day squiggles in a chart can drive you crazy.
So at his firm, he uses these charts in head-to-head battles to determine where money is moving over the medium term and longer term. This method identifies meaningful changes, not just small ones.
The US is seeing a rotation to the old-school telecom names (haven't seen this in Canada). In his rankings, the #1 US large-cap stock right now. Steadily improving, very well supported. Held in really nicely recently when a lot of the cyclicals fell. Yield is 1.35%.
(Analysts’ price target is $263.46)International markets have done extremely well on a relative basis. The Chinese market had been quite depressed for quite some time, now finally started to break out. Very strong in last month or so. This ETF ranks highly in his scoring, looks amazing on the breakout. Capital is moving into Europe and China.
What interests him is that despite all the tariff talk, this ETF is doing incredibly well. Intriguing that Trump is issuing all these threats, yet this ETF is breaking out.
The federal election was just called for April 28. The tariffs are on everybody's mind and rightfully so. He's fiscally conservative and socially liberal. The Canadian dollar will be rewarded with a new government that's friendlier to business. It will be a close race. Mark Carney is a significant notch up from Trudeau, being the smartest world leader now in terms of the global economy having run two central banks. Who will negotiate the best long-term outcome for Canadians? Today's rally was naive; tariffs will have a great impact and be inflationary.
Remember that a GIC and dividend stock have different levels of risk. Consider preferred shares and covered call ETFs like ZWC which gives broad exposure to Canadian dividends with a covered call overlay. ZWU, too, which is an alternative to fixed income, but gives equity market risk.
(Note the short timeframe.) Caught up in sentiment against the financial sector. In the group, insurance companies have actually held up fairly well (haven't gone down as much as everything else).