The answer is "very little". If these tariffs really go on, and if they go on big (25% across the board), and if they're lasting, and if this is really their game plan, the playbook is going to be deeply recessionary. It'll be deeply recessionary for Canada, and could be recessionary for the US as well.
It won't be a question of what should you own. It'll be more a question of what should be sold. You'll want to really bring down your equity allocation.
People want to know if this is really going to happen. Anything can, and we're certainly in uncertain territory. As your anchor, look at Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan. This involves 3% GDP Growth, 3% debt to GDP (very deflationary), and 3M more barrels. Looking at the US, its biggest priorities are to grow and to cover their debt. If they don't get in front of that debt, at some point it's going to be calamitous. They're never going to get in front if it if that economy doesn't grow. Getting from 2% to 3% is not going to happen with tariffs.
A lot of it is the antics of negotiation, and he doesn't want to be wrong and misallocated in portfolios. But 3 months from now, he'd gamble that we'll be out of the tariff woods.
Fentanyl at the border, the Arctic, and paying our fair share of NATO. The trick will be that if tariffs are put on, the waiting game begins of how long will they last? If they are put on, markets will just drift down and down and down.
He believes that at some point the Trump administration will cry uncle and lift them, because tariffs weren't actually their primary motivation. His guess is that tariffs will last 2-3 days or weeks, and then Donald will move on to something else.
Just had significant miss in the segment that's 40% of its business. Q4 was way worse than feared. Overreaction to downside. Thinks earnings have likely bottomed, as he thinks tariffs won't happen. Looks really good at 11x 2026 earnings, with 18% EPS growth rate for 2025-2027 -- really nice PEG ratio. At 8.3x, cheaper than peers.
The proposed, and then reversed, move to the US is just noise. Good growth stock, buy when weak but not if we're going into a recession. He's more inclined to buy now than to wait for Tariff Tuesday next week.
He just trimmed target due to additional capex. EBITDA up 10%, nice. He is worried about tariffs on this name. Always trades a bit pricey. Expects 11% EPS growth, trades at 19.5x. Could probably get cheaper, but good grower over time.
If you think tariffs will go away, good technical level to start nibbling at.