PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/23, Up 53%)

Sees more upside from here. Occupancy levels have crept back up to over 90%. Fantastic demand profile, over 4% CAGR. New construction is near-low. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/23, Up 18%)

Hit his NAV target of $56-57 last fall, and he exited.

DON'T BUY

Solid balance sheet, so it's pretty defensive. Vacancy crept in last year, taking longer to lease due to economic uncertainty. Tariffs are the #1 question, and Magna is a large tenant. Same tariff issues with Europe. A show-me story. See his Top Picks.

DON'T BUY

Pretty good job transitioning to pure-play industrial, but some worry about capital allocation. Trades at a higher discount than peers. He wants more liquidity and concentrated in key markets. Better risk/reward in larger entities with more liquidity. See his Top Picks.

DON'T BUY

Tilts toward the higher-end of the market, seeing more softness than others. Highest exposure to GTA, where there are pockets of new supply. Rental growth stalled in Toronto; investors are more likely to chase markets with more growth such as BEI.UN or KMP.UN.

WEAK BUY

Concentrated heavily in Ontario and Quebec, rent controls. Softer population growth and fewer international students. Won't see previous growth. Wide discount to NAV at current levels. Broad recovery underway, capital returning to the sector.

BUY

In the income bucket, with dividend yield in high 9% range currently. Well managed, good capital allocator. Could be seeing an increase in transactions, so might gain market share or just benefit from increased volumes. If you hold, you're just looking to capture the spread on interest from making loans. This part of the market is pretty secure, with the sustained commercial recovery underway.

DON'T BUY

In transition, difficult to analyze. Not really covering its distribution. Investors hoping dividend won't be cut.

BUY

Attractive level, high double-digit discount to NAV. Great portfolio. Multi-family residential portfolio is growing, may start selling it off and reallocating capital to retail or to share buybacks. Overhang: $600M worth of condos closing in next 3 years. Risk/reward is in your favour to buy here.

DON'T BUY

Walmart is its major tenant, secure, great cashflow. Investors like the distribution of over mid-7%. Retiring low-cost debt, so earnings will have negative FFO growth. He likes to see a return beyond the yield. See his Top Picks.

BUY

Over 90% of rents come from Canadian Tire, secure cashflow. Over 99% occupancy. Internal growth has contracted, but this is short-term. Perhaps only 2% capital growth, but a safe distribution. Yield is 6.5%.

TOP PICK

Aims to own the finest grocery-anchored real estate across Canada. High quality. He thinks it's the best globally. 30% discount to NAV. Get paid to wait while the value gap closes. Goal is to grow earnings and NAV by 3% a year for 3 years. Defensive plus growth. Yield is 5.3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.11)
TOP PICK

Industrial, but small- and mid-bay segment. In other words, urban distribution warehouses which are somewhat immune to new supply. 2/3 of the portfolio is in Canada, 1/3 in Europe. In partnership with government of Singapore. 

Wide 28% discount to his estimated value in the range of $16.50. Yield is 5.9%.

(Analysts’ price target is $15.97)
TOP PICK

Very compelling supply/demand fundamentals. Tailwind of seniors' population growth. Retirement portfolio recovering nicely. LTC care segment in Ontario is seeing massive waiting lists. Phenomenal management team. Discount to NAV. On track to higher occupancies. Yield is 6%.

(Analysts’ price target is $18.72)
COMMENT
Risk to REITs.

#1 risk has always been oversupply. New supply inhibits the ability to raise rents and attract new tenants. Today, given where interest rates have moved to, it's been prohibitive for new construction. 

In the senior living space, both CSH.UN and SIA.UN have taken advantage of this environment, because they already have land where they can develop at a lower cost than competitors.