DON'T BUY

Volatility on steroids, a favourite of the speculative trading crowd. Auditors resigned, and that's all an investor needs to know. Red, red, red flag. For traders, not investors like himself.

SELL

Great and innovative company, ubiquitous. The Mag 7 names he owns have better growth prospects. Diversified away from the iPhone, but still very levered to the its replacement cycle. China sales are a big driver, and have not been great. Upgrades no longer as compelling.

Fortress cash on balance sheet. Not a super-demanding valuation. Won't fall off a cliff, but organic growth challenged.

WEAK BUY
Put new $$ here, or in Canadian banks?

Canadian banks are probably the better pick. But you could do worse than to invest in ENB, a pretty good company. Got overleveraged, and had to clean up. Leading oil pipeline business, with new gas acquisitions. Pretty good line of sight to high single-digit total return. Dividend growth of Canadian banks will probably edge it out, with their better secular growth prospects.

He owns another pipeline, TRP.

HOLD

Had the specific catalyst of breaking apart with the SOBO spinoff, which unlocked value.

BUY
US utility name for exposure to data centres?

His firm is doing some research on nuclear power and electricity generators. Hasn't pulled the trigger yet. Likes the idea of data centres driving change in electricity demand. 

He's playing it from the upstream angle with CCO, the biggest publicly owned pure-play uranium company. Still likes it.

BUY
US energy name for exposure to data centres?

His firm is doing some research on nuclear power and electricity generators. Hasn't pulled the trigger yet. Likes the idea of data centres driving change in electricity demand. 

This name is about 2/3 oil production, and 1/3 natural gas. Also 13-14 refineries well-placed in the US and elsewhere. Chemical products business. New management has improved margins. Will benefit from Trump trade. Timely entry point.

TOP PICK

Added just a couple of weeks ago. Interest-rate sensitivity has turned from a headwind to a tailwind, as both central banks in US and Canada have started cutting rates. Canada will have more cuts soon, fast, and deep in the coming 3-12 months. 

Will benefit from fund flows, as GICs will now be earning 3-3.5% instead of 5-5.5%. Dividend is not only sustainable, but will likely grow faster than the other telcos. Last month, increased dividend by 3.5% on the heels of previous 3.5% increase back in March. Yield is 7.3%.

Better financial strength and flexibility than peers; its 2 rivals are distracted. It holds a more interesting (and small but faster-growing) collection of non-telecom businesses -- virtual healthcare, employee benefits and consulting, home monitoring, etc. Interesting catalyst with stated intent to monetize ~$3B of non-core urban real estate into high-density residential housing.

(Analysts’ price target is $24.40)
TOP PICK

By far, the world's biggest software company. Scale advantage, defensive growth. Great exposure to long-term secular info-tech themes: digital transformation, cloud computing, business intelligence, AI, security. 70% of revenues are recurring. Mission-critical products. Strong incumbency advantage, big competitive moat. 

Sustainable EPS growth rate. Valuation is reasonable in view of growth prospects. Yield is 0.8%.

(Analysts’ price target is $500.27)
TOP PICK

Dark horse candidate. Former market darling. Trades at 0.4x book value. Office and retail in Toronto. 6M square feet of space in Montreal; 3M across Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa and Kitchener. 17% compound growth rate total return since IPO, until their Covid fall. Yield is 10%, very sustainable.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.03)
HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Oil is down, which doesn't help. The budget shows a slight decline in production from year end exit rates, so investors may be worried that all the spending ($1.2B) is not going to boost actual average production rates. BTE also updated its five-year plan, which looks OK to us with a planned reduction in debt. But the sector remains out of favour overall right now. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

PARTIAL BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

In Q4 – 2024, CGY reported a revenue growth rate of 3%, with revenues reaching $181M compared to last year’s $175.9M. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved in the quarter to 12.5% from 11.6% last year. Overall, these were acceptable numbers but not that strong, revenue growth slowed down in Q4 compared to previous quarters. It managed to grow its topline consistently over the last few years through acquisitions. In the last five years, CGY’s revenue EBITDA also grew by 16% and 23% annualized, respectively. It is trading at 10.2x Forward P/E. 

The company also expects the FY2025 revenue to be in the range of $800M - $880M, indicating a mid-point revenue growth rate of around 12%. Overall, it looks interesting, given its cheap valuation and double-digit growth rate.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

BLK is one of the largest asset managers in the world. The company has managed to grow its revenue consistently over the years, driven mainly by organic growth. BLK is a dividend machine with a very stable and consistent track record of raising dividends over the years.

That being said, BLK is trading at 22x Forward P/E - the higher end of its historical multiple, which has ranged from 15.6x to 22x over the last few years. We would not be too aggressive in purchasing here and would be nimble and prefer to add to the position over time as opportunities present themselves. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

This or That? Intact Financial Corp (IFC) or Chubb (CB):

Both CB and IFC have shown strong price performance over the years, and while CB is a much larger company than IFC, Intact’s market leading position within the Canadian insurance industry supports its premium valuation relative to CB. We like the margin profile of CB relative to IFC, but we feel this leaves room for margin expansion for IFC as it can grow into international segments or even different markets in the future (specialty lines, life insurance, etc.). CB is a much larger and more globally established names, and so for investors looking for safety and some conservatism, we might prefer CB, but for investors seeking a bit more growth potential and an industry-leader, we like the prospects of IFC.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free