Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!
Today, Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA and Stockchase Insights commented about whether CVE-T, SPB-T, VHI-T, INTC-Q, AXP-N, PFE-N, AMD-Q, GOOG-Q, AC-T, CAH-N, NVO-N, META-Q, BA-N, C-N, TMO-N, MS-N, TGT-N, AZN-N, EADSY-OTC, ATZ-T are stocks to buy or sell.
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Excellent business - continues to own. Very strong margins with dominant position in internet "search" business. Margins very high with advertising. New technology in A.I. will add further product offerings, and better search results. Expecting share price to continue to rise - currently priced very well. Earnings expected to rise.
A lot of write downs in the business in the last earnings report. Losing market share - chips not as good as competitors. Hard to tell whether business will be able to compete in the future. Not well positioned for A.I. demands. Might be able to find a niche in the sector - but had to tell. Would recommend watching.
VHI’s EBITDA margin has improved in recent quarters to 26% in Q2-2024 compared to last year’s 23%. EBITDA Margins have improved gradually due to a business model with highly favourable operational leverage, where most of the growth flows straight to the bottom line due to the limited capex required. The recent acquisition of Strata Health marks VHI’s largest acquisition ever. We have comments on the recent acquisition here.
VHI will fund the acquisition for a total up-front consideration of $32.3M through a combination of cash ($18.6M) and 1,480,726 shares. On the trailing twelve-month basis, Strata Health generated $12.7M in revenue and has an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $12.3M, the deal is valued at 2.6x ARR. We think the deal is highly accretive to VHI as VHI itself is trading at around 10x ARR. We like the deal, we think VHI can continue to execute its acquisitive growth strategy in an efficient way going forward.
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SPB has been very disappointing. It has a shareholder yield of 16% (11% dividend yield, 4.4% debt paydown, and a 0.5% buyback yield). Analyst estimates have largely been trending lower, but forward earnings growth is expected to be strong, but some of this is reflected in its forward earnings multiple of 17X. It is a cyclical business, and we will be watching the earnings release next week very closely to further assess at that time our full review of the company going forward.
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EPS was 42c, vs estimates of 42.4c; revenue of $16.55B beat estimates of $11.63B. EBITDA of $2.4B beat estimates by 2.3%. With maintenance at Cenovus' Christina Lake facility completed, total production could rise above 800,000 barrels a day in 4Q vs. 771,000 in 3Q, which may lift upstream cash flow and earnings. Operating cash flow dipped slightly to C$2.5 billion in 3Q vs. C$2.8 billion in 2Q, mostly due to the pullback in commodity prices and a negative operating margin for the company's downstream segment. Assuming stable cash flow in 4Q, the company should continue its robust capital returns program -- it returned C$1.1 billion to shareholders in 3Q across share purchases and buybacks. Cenovus reached its net-debt target of C$4 billion in July, which sets the stage for returning 100% of excess free funds flow to shareholders starting with 3Q and beyond. Considering its valuation, dividend and potential, we would be fine buying some, within the context of the cyclical energy sector.
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Insights on Dividend Investing:
1. Do not just own one name:
The question of “if you had to own one” is an interesting mental exercise that investors can practice, the idea is to evaluate all the opportunities by taking into account opportunity costs and picking out the best of them. That being said, investors should not own just ONE thing, it is way too risky for most investors to bet heavily on one horse.
2. Dividend growth rate or dividend yield?
Investors are easily attracted to the high dividend yield. Sometimes, investors make investing decisions based on that fact alone. It is understandable, however, that sometimes the dividend yield is just the tip of the iceberg, and investors need to dig deeper to understand whether the dividend yield is sustainable. The rule of thumb is to own a name with a high dividend growth rate supported by growing fundamentals, not just a high yield alone.
3. Focus on the micro, not the macro:
It is a common mistake for investors to position the portfolio based on certain macro expectations such as inflation, election, interest rates, etc. These things are highly unpredictable and short-term in nature. It is rare to find investors who are consistently right on macro factors. We think it is better to concentrate resources on something investors do know and can control, which is companies’ fundamentals.
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Capital structure not great, but company appears to be growing. Capacity to China/Asia growing. Fuel costs coming down. Would recommend buying - price could reach ~$40/share. Overall, is positive on the business.