Good times for equity investors. And for bond market investors as well, after 1-3 difficult years in the bond market. We can chalk it up to a Goldilocks scenario in the minds of investors.
The BOC was ahead of the Fed with rate cuts, and continued with another one this month. And then with the Fed, the long-awaited, pined-for, initial rate cut came last week, and it was a doozy. A double, so to speak, at 50 bps. Investors have developed some conviction that we're going to get some relief in the rate-sensitive segments of the market.
Despite the fact that we're seeing tentative signs of weakness in the labour market, there's a jelling consensus that the Fed might be able to stick a soft landing and avoid a recession. He's in that camp. There have been a lot of naysayers anticipating a recession, going back to 2022, and there were some compelling arguments for that.
But fiscal largesse allowed us to stick-handle our way through what many thought would be a recession in 2022-23. He's cautiously optimistic that we'll avoid one in 2024-25 as well.
A lot of factors at play to explain these moves.
Yes, they are defensive sectors, but not solely. Real estate is a value play, and perhaps an emerging view that offices are going to start filling up again. And with the loosening conditions in the labour market, the balance of power might start shifting away from employees (who have enjoyed working in their pyjamas and Lulus the last 4 years) and back toward employers.
Utilities are defensive, regulated, and defensive, and there's going to be a secular increase in power demand as we move to a greener economy. But it's also a second derivative trade on the AI mania that's swept the market for the last 2 years. Data centres and the AI chips use a tremendous amount of power.
Doesn't have a bright outlook for its future. Not a good bank. Multi-decade series of strategic blunders. Increasingly, scale matters, and this one is sub-scale. Put themselves up for sale, but why would anyone buy it when they can just eat their lunch for free and take their market share?
Different from NA takeover of CWB; both of those banks are good banks.