DON'T BUY

Most of the big banks report this week. BNS will be interesting because of its foray into the US. The yield curve in the past 2 years is an inverted one. Rate cuts should help the banks' margins. We have yet to have the hard landing typically seen at the end of a business cycle and isn't reflect in stock classes--that's his biggest concern. Don't chase the banks if they report positive earnings, though definitely buy dips. Last week from Jackson Hole, Jay Powell didn't talk about the balance sheet which is a big part of QE easing, which the market needs to hear. Powell was clearly dovish, but the market missed the go-slow message. Instead the market priced in 200 basis points of cuts in the coming year that we won't see. The market is too optimistic; he sees a bumpier market. Lastly, the volatility around Nvidia and AI is very high, so NVDA's report tomorrow will be a big move one way or the other.

BUY

Hamilton ETFs has a whole series of sector-based, option strategy ETFs for enhanced income. He likes these ETFs, but it you are really bullish on the outlook, you want the underlying holdings and not the extra income necessarily. But if you want income, this is a great way to get it tax-efficiently, though you will give up long-term growth.

BUY

Hamilton ETFs has a whole series of sector-based, option strategy ETFs for enhanced income. He likes these ETFs, but it you are really bullish on the outlook, you want the underlying holdings and not the extra income necessarily. But if you want income, this is a great way to get it tax-efficiently, though you will give up long-term growth.

DON'T BUY

Banks are cutting rates, which is a tailwind, but the market has already priced it into balanced ETFs like this. So, there's limited upside.

COMMENT
Would you extend bond duration, if buying a bond ETF?

No. He expect bond yields to fall. We'll stay in this yield range and we're likely now in the low end of that range. Most investors follow trends, when they need to anticipate trends.

HOLD
As interest rates fall, should I transfer from ZWU to ZUT?

You need to anticipate which direction yields will move, because the market has already priced in interest rate cuts. If rates don't fall, an interest-rates sensitive like ZWU will perform at or underperform your expectations; this has already rallied 10% in the past month. ZWU pays you more income given its covered call overlay vs. ZUT which doesn't give you extra income.

DON'T BUY
As interest rates fall, should I transfer from ZWU to ZUT?


You need to anticipate which direction yields will move, because the market has already priced in interest rate cuts. If rates don't fall, an interest-rates sensitive like ZWU will perform at or underperform your expectations; this has already rallied 10% in the past month. ZWU pays you more income given its covered call overlay vs. ZUT which doesn't give you extra income.

BUY

His favourite US ETF, which holds AI and automation. Canada doesn't have an ETF like this. None of ROBO holdings are in Canada, so it gives you foreign exposure.

DON'T BUY

It holds all Canadian bonds, including corporate. Canadian interest rates have already fallen, and he expects inflation to be sticky. So longer-term duration bonds won't fall as much as they already have. He doesn't like duration as an asset class.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He trades it when it gets expensive or fully valued. Recently, he's been trimming exposure; if we hit a hard landing, base metals will underperform. He would buy on dips. This ETF is broad, giving you a bit of everything.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He hasn't looked at this recently. This struggles at $42-44. Upside is limited. Be patient and buy on pullbacks.

COMMENT
Educational segment

Forecasting NVDA's movement after it reports late Tuesday, based on calls and puts, the share price will swing 11% either way from today's price. That straddle position is the risk that they market makers are willing to sell those calls or puts. Looking at the NVDA chart a year ago: shares ran up to earnings, followed by a sell-off for a couple of weeks. Also, we had a big move up in the price target after beating earnings. The next report: share ran up again, NVDA beat earnings, rallied for 2 weeks to the one-year forward price, then fell and went sideways to its breakout point. The last time, it rallied to a new high, a big beat, rallied a couple weeks, then another correction. Considering the price target now at $140 and 47x PE, we'll likely see selling into the quarter. Also, there's no support 11% lower, but at the rising 200-day average of $95ish. 

BUY
See his NVDA comment

Heading into NVDA's report late Tuesday, there's more downside than upside risk in the short run, but not long term. The chart could be a head and shoulders. Definitely, buy dips and don't chase.

COMMENT

Although the market has been on an upswing since the downturn in August there is still reason for some caution. There are a couple of cycles coming. The months of September and October can be volatile. Also this is an election year in the U.S. and this can create more volatility. He is bullish on commodities  although not necessarily three months from now. Gold does not have a relationship with the stock market but it does with the U.S. dollar which is at the bottom of its trading zone. Gold moves up when the dollar moves down and vice versa. The U.S. dollar could climb which could cause the price of gold to pause. The market is now going beyond mega caps to small and mid caps which is a positive sign.

BUY

It is in a classic up-trend. He doesn't see any resistance that will stop it so stay with it.