Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) commented about whether ADM-N, PHM-N, BNTX-Q, VZ-N, CVS-N, T-N are stocks to buy or sell.
If you look at the S&P Tech Index as a whole, it's trading at multi-year, multi-decade valuations. Price to sales ratio is back to 1999-2000 levels. We know what happened after that dot.com bubble, when the tech market dropped about 82%. Not that that's going to happen, but you have to be very careful and selective when choosing technology names.
Bond yields have jumped up a bit in the last little while, oil prices are above $90 or so, and these are going to be headwinds against the market. That being said, he remains pretty constructive.
Inflation is cooling pretty quickly, down to about 3.7%. Yes, it was higher YOY as reported yesterday, but the core inflation is still looking pretty decent, and way below the highs last summer of 9.1%. He anticipates the BOC and the Fed to stabilize rates, pause their tightening cycle, and hopeful start to lower rates mid- or late next year. Stable interest rates are good for both equity and bond markets.
Analysts are increasing S&P 500 estimates, seeing better than expected economic data, labour force is stronger than expected, US consumer remains robust.
It could, but the bond market will still look out where the economy will land in 12-24 months. Expects a bit of a soft patch in the next quarter or two. We've sidestepped a deep recession or contraction, and equity markets look ahead 6-18 months to see where the economy will be. That's why markets are responding decently, despite August and September being weaker historically.
62% tech, with the rest being in consumer discretionary, healthcare, etc. Trading about 30x PE, 4.7x price to sales, which is above the 10-year average of 26x PE and 3.8x price to sales. Elevated valuation. He'd prefer the general NASDAQ index over just the tech index. Cost is 39 bps, a portion in your portfolio could make sense.
Having iPhone as a major component of revenue poses a problem, considering each new iteration is not all that different. 27x forward earnings for a 10% EPS growth rate. Quality and value, given balance sheet and cashflow. 2.7x PEG ratio, not inexpensive. 7x forward price to sales, not cheap. China's restriction on iPhones is a headwind.