The rally will depend on earnings. Doesn't know what will happen in the rest of the year, but a recession in unlikely, more likely in 2024. Valuations are high. He expects a period of choppiness, but he is invested and not negative. He's been trimming tech modestly like Apple, because the PE rose. He loves energy and healthcare.
He owns retail, but not names like LULU or Nike, but rather defensive ones like this. He sees more weakness in pooer consumers (i.e. Dollar General which plunged recently). HD benefits from the general consumer trade-down of staying in your home longer and fixing it up. The days of consumers being flush with cash are over. Done. Inflation seems to be weakening the low end of the job market.
Recent GDP data lower than expected.
Believes higher interest rates are starting to take their toll on the economy.
Doesn't expect any major interest rate hikes going forward.
Optimistic about financial markets heading in Q4.
Non-tech sectors will start to catch up in valuations (healthcare, energy etc.)
Is a good time to be investing in dividend stocks(flat to lower interest rate environment).
Many felt that the cycle was over and prices would collapse, but he feels this is a little downturn. Demand will bounce back because of infrastructure spending to come next and demand for EVs and batteries. This is where the cycle is heading for base metals.