A little concerned. Retail has benefit from selling higher-ticket items, but last quarter HD had fewer transitions. It beat only because of those higher-ticket sales. Overall, we're still seeing disinflation, but how much longer can the consumer remain resilient? Savings are down a lot from a year ago. Will there be some trade-down?
EPS was 41c, matching estimates; revenue was $1.385B, 3% short of estimates.
EBITDA of $496M was 20% short.
Guidance was weak: AEM noted it expected production to be lower and costs to be higher for the next three years.
The stock dropped the most in two years.
Guidance is about 6% below prior forecasts due to 'permit issues, noise restrictions and revised mining operations'.
Cost guidance rose 15% from the company's prior expectations. 4Q gold production was 799,438 ounces, vs 812,537 estimated.
The Yamana deal is expected to close in March. We can deal with short term issues, but we do not like a three year outlook of lower production as well as higher costs.
The price drop is justified here.
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Yes, it isn't cheap at 50x forward PE and it's made a sharp move up lately, but there remains earnings appreciation ahead with strong billings. Strong Fed contracts are coming, too. Businesses won't cut cybersecurity spending.