COMMENT
Fed rate decision this afternoon.

Not looking for anything crucial. Rate increases are expected to continue in the US, same as they have in Canada. BOC has shown some leadership by moving first with a smaller amount, and we may see that again today from J. Powell.

COMMENT
Portfolio changes.

Increasing quality, looking for higher ROEs and ROCs and less debt. Increased the number of stocks, going from 18 names to 30. They shifted into better value names, by taking profits in names that had run up and deploying profits into names with more reasonable valuations that pay dividends. 2022 was a very different year that what we experienced over the past decade. Inflation has roared back, interest rates have risen, fears of global recession are as high as they've been since 2008. When the facts change, they change their minds.

DON'T BUY

Way off from highs. Covid has changed how and where we work. What is your conviction level that office occupancy will revert to the pre-Covid mean? What's the timeline for that? He doesn't have the answers. It's in the "too hard" pile. If looking for a similar yield, try BCE.

PARTIAL SELL

With inflation, many consumers are being driven into dollar stores. High quality, good returns. Share price at multi-year highs, 33x earnings. TSX is at 13x. Very levered balance sheet. Take profits. "Be fearful when others are greedy." See his Top Picks.

DON'T BUY

Airlines are a difficult business. Capital intensive, lots of regulation. He avoids investing. Strong balance sheet. Profitability trails the market. Wait for profitability to return and revisit.

BUY
MFC vs. SLF

Both high quality, good balance sheets, strong management. Both attractive value right now. MFC is 8x earnings, SLF is 11x. Asian business is a differentiator, which both have. MFC is much more international, with 80% of revenues from outside Canada, and 50% from Asia. Covid has slowed Asia, but when it bounces back, MFC should benefit a bit more. MFC yield slightly higher. Long term, you'll do well in both. 

WEAK BUY
SLF vs. MFC

Both high quality, good balance sheets, strong management. Both attractive value right now. MFC is 8x earnings, SLF is 11x. Asian business is a differentiator, which both have. MFC is much more international, with 80% of revenues from outside Canada, and 50% from Asia. Covid has slowed Asia, but when it bounces back, MFC should benefit a bit more. MFC yield slightly higher. Long term, you'll do well in both. 

COMMENT
Price targets.

His firm doesn't try to predict 12-month returns or set price targets. Instead, they evaluate a company's ability to produce earnings for the next 3-4 year period. In other words, what is its normalized earnings power? So, if the company looks attractive based on its share price and normalized earnings power, it's a Buy. If it becomes expensive, then they tend to lighten up. 

DON'T BUY

Great, strong company, strong brand. Made transition to digital. Tremendous business model on paper. Profitability is tepid at best, below TSX. Eye-popping PE of 78x.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Canadian blue chip. Rails are magnificent businesses. Backbone and arteries of Canadian economy. Has done well during post-Covid rebound. Efficient way to move goods, relatively environmentally friendly. Proposed acquisition gives them a bigger footprint. Multiple stretched at 30x. Revisit after a pullback.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/22, Up 2%)

Thesis remains intact. High quality. Benefited during Covid renovations. Now stock's over-corrected. Usually trades at a premium. Now at an attractive multiple. Significant pullback gives a good margin of safety in the face of economic slowdown.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/22, Up 0.1%)

High quality, as blue chip as you can get. Stable, recurring revenues. Nothing fundamental to change the thesis. Share price dropped against the macro backdrop. Yield is 6%. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/22, Up 5%)

Strong brand name, high quality. Diversified. 50% of revenue is from Canada. 45% of revenue is from Latin America, a key differentiating factor which has been hurting, putting pressure on share price. Yield is 6%. 

BUY

Share price hit today with announcement of cost overrun on a projected. Inflation is having an impact, plus labour costs soared. Project is 83% complete. High quality, attractive returns. Safe, stable balance sheet. Attractive multiple of 13x. ENB, for example, is at 19x. Yield around 6.5%.

HOLD

Great company. CEO's done a great job. Increasing price of nat gas led to strong results and share price. Now, nat gas has moved from $10 to $3, share price down. He took profits at stock highs. Hold and evaluate for further pullbacks, when he'd buy again.