Buy now, pay later stocks: Affirm, Upstart, Block and Paypal Upstart is down 92% from its high, Affirm 89%, Block 78% and PayPal 76%. Some of this is due to these stocks being massively massively overpriced to begin with. At peak, Affirm was trading at 30x sales (not earnings), and it won't be profitable before 2026. Block and PayPal are profitable, but were trading at sky-high multiples last year (170x PE and 65x respectively). The market hates the buy-now, pay-later stocks because they don't make money (though are well-run). He liked Upstart early on; it wasn't a buy-not,pay-later story, but helped facilitate loans using technology. But Upstart took on far more credit risk than assumed, which upset him. The business models of these stocks were far better when interest rates were low. Also, more competitors have rushed in now. The lesson: don't be caught up in euphoria. Earnings, valuations and interest rates matter.
Worries of a recession persist even on a positive day like today. The US Fed needs to tame not only commodity inflation but wage inflation as well. To be fair, the Fed could not have predicted the post-Covid war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine or China's strict lockdowns. He can't tell if we're heading into a recession or a soft landing, because the Fed may have already won its war against commodity inflation and it certainly beating housing inflation and may soon beat wage inflation. The stakes are high. The banks will report soon and he is optimistic about the earnings they will report. Tech will bifurcate between profitable stocks which will rally and non-profitable which will fall further. Stocks now reflect a recession. So, if we get a stagnant economy that will re-accelerate, then stocks will rally. But if the Fed hits us with several more rate hikes, we will see more downside. He predicts the former.
Buy now, pay later stocks: Affirm, Upstart, Block and Paypal Upstart is down 92% from its high, Affirm 89%, Block 78% and PayPal 76%. Some of this is due to these stocks being massively massively overpriced to begin with. At peak, Affirm was trading at 30x sales (not earnings), and it won't be profitable before 2026. Block and PayPal are profitable, but were trading at sky-high multiples last year (170x PE and 65x respectively). The market hates the buy-now, pay-later stocks because they don't make money (though are well-run). He liked Upstart early on; it wasn't a buy-not,pay-later story, but helped facilitate loans using technology. But Upstart took on far more credit risk than assumed, which upset him. The business models of these stocks were far better when interest rates were low. Also, more competitors have rushed in now. The lesson: don't be caught up in euphoria. Earnings, valuations and interest rates matter.
Buy now, pay later stocks: Affirm, Upstart, Block and Paypal Upstart is down 92% from its high, Affirm 89%, Block 78% and PayPal 76%. Some of this is due to these stocks being massively massively overpriced to begin with. At peak, Affirm was trading at 30x sales (not earnings), and it won't be profitable before 2026. Block and PayPal are profitable, but were trading at sky-high multiples last year (170x PE and 65x respectively). The market hates the buy-now, pay-later stocks because they don't make money (though are well-run). He liked Upstart early on; it wasn't a buy-not,pay-later story, but helped facilitate loans using technology. But Upstart took on far more credit risk than assumed, which upset him. The business models of these stocks were far better when interest rates were low. Also, more competitors have rushed in now. The lesson: don't be caught up in euphoria. Earnings, valuations and interest rates matter.
Buy now, pay later stocks: Affirm, Upstart, Block and Paypal Upstart is down 92% from its high, Affirm 89%, Block 78% and PayPal 76%. Some of this is due to these stocks being massively massively overpriced to begin with. At peak, Affirm was trading at 30x sales (not earnings), and it won't be profitable before 2026. Block and PayPal are profitable, but were trading at sky-high multiples last year (170x PE and 65x respectively). The market hates the buy-now, pay-later stocks because they don't make money (though are well-run). He liked Upstart early on; it wasn't a buy-not,pay-later story, but helped facilitate loans using technology. But Upstart took on far more credit risk than assumed, which upset him. The business models of these stocks were far better when interest rates were low. Also, more competitors have rushed in now. The lesson: don't be caught up in euphoria. Earnings, valuations and interest rates matter.
However, Petco has beaten its last four earnings (the next is on August 17), earnings have risen 12% in the past year, insiders have bought more shares, and it trades at a reasonable 22.22x. In mid-June, Petco announced it will open stores to serve pets and farm animals in rural American communities, where 14% of the U.S. population lives and totalling a $7 billion addressable market. Interesting. Let's see how this plan fares.
Metro has two buys, five holds and a $74.29 price target that's 7.5% higher than the current price. Its 4.63% profit margin beats Weston's 4.11% and Empire's 2.69%, though Metro's gross margin lafs those peers. Again, you won't get rich buying Metro shares, but you can park your money here and see a safe, though modest return during all this volatility.
Right before Canada Day last week. Air Canada announced it will cancel over 15% of its flights this summer. On July 4, it was reported that Air Canada ranked no. 1 in delays on the July 2-3 weekend as two-thirds of all its flights (717 in total) landed late. One assumes that the reason is the same that's plaguing many airlines around the world: lack of staff. However, on July 4, BNN reported that Air Canada staffing levels are at 97% of pre-pandemic levels. Blame has to be pointed at the Liberal government which still mandates the ArriveCAN app to help screen for Covid, even though Ottawa removed random Covid testing in June to ease airport congestion.