DON'T BUY
He doesn't follow this, because it's cyclical. LNR's fortunes are tied to car sales. If there's an economic slowdown, car sales will also decline, which is true for LNR historically. Look elsewhere, beyond cars, for predictable cash flows.
transportation equip & components
DON'T BUY
He bought around $30, sold at $90, watched it shoot to $160, and now has fallen. LSPD overpaid for acquisitions. LSPD doesn't fit his criteria, lacking cash flow and positive returns on capital while the founder has stepped back. Not a profitable nor predictable business.
0
WATCH
A predictable, quality company though the PE is too high (though not bad); he prefers 20x PE. Is watching it. There is 80% insider ownership, which can be positive, though not always. In other words, he's neutral about this issue of ownership. Can they compete in China? It's a massive market, but very difficult to survive here. Too risky for him. EL has tremendous brands and nicely grow, overall, though.
Consumer Products
DON'T BUY
He owned it 5 years ago, but return on invested capital over 10 years was above 20%, but has more recently fallen to 5-6%. SAP relies on production and the supply of milk, which they don't control the price of (makes him nervous). So, it's like a commodity play. The returns on capital are too low for him and have been declining.
food processing
DON'T BUY
Doesn't own any of the Canadian banking cartel. This industry needs disruption and more competition. Banks have enjoyed excess profits because they are a cartel. TD and Royal were the leaders here, but return in invested capital are in the mid-10s. Sure, reliable returns, but that is due to an oligopoly. More banks would benefit the Canadian consumer, certainly.
banks
DON'T BUY
They carrry little debt and are still run by the founder which is good. It trades around 14x earnings while returns remain above 20%. Well-run. Has relied a lot on acquisitions and integrating them well. They relied on the Paw Patrol franchise a lot, but that is relying too much on a single franchise. This is a hit-or-miss situation which he doesn't like. TOY doesn't have the track record of Disney to withstand that risk.
0
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 01/21, Up 12%) Owned this since 2014 and his largest position. Founder-run and the best capital allocators on the planet. Generate returns of 30% since 2006. He expects this to continue. CSU doesn't rely on debt, so they can buy companies cheaply in this economic downturn.
computer software / processing