COMMENT
Educational Segment. Today, inflation outlook is different than in the past. We see a 25 year trend of the 10-year US interest rates is now below the inflation rate. There will be less globalization, more inflation so there will be less profits. Investors need to get boring. For the next few years, maybe tech isn't the place to be. Look for value stocks.
BUY
Offers good value in the EV space, relative to Tesla. You are paying insane earnings expectations for Tesla. NIO is one of the best plays right now. Got an upgrade today. Chinese ADR risk is starting to lift, so there will be more interest coming in.
COMMENT
Fixed assets. If interest rates are being challenged and real yields are negative, then all fixed assets are affected. Private credit could be a good solution for a lot of people, although it is illiquid, it gives good yield.
COMMENT
There is more value in emerging markets. However, you have currency risks too. Emerging markets are compelling for growth. It is a more difficult asset class, like the Russia exposure that is now valued at $0. It might pay to have an active manager that selects individual stocks.
COMMENT
Hasn't been a growth story. When an insurance company writes an insurance policy, they have a long term liability. They need to earn a rate of return. 5-6 years, there hasn't been growth. Likes it and owns it below $20-$25. Does not want to own it around $30.
BUY
A strategy that writes puts on stocks they want to own at lower prices and extracts yield. When they own a stock, they write a call long term. This produces around 6% yield.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Likes medical devices and health area as society ages. Would buy during a correcting. US and Europe have good healthcare stocks.
COMMENT
Russia-Ukraine. This will be a problem for a while. Commodity prices will also rise, not just oil. Supply chains must be re-worked.
COMMENT
Inverted yield curve. Has a direct implication to the business cycle. There is less credit with a flat or inverted yield curve because it is less profitable. Inflation is probably going to be stickier than thought as well.
COMMENT
60/40 portfolio. The traditional 60/40 portfolio is no longer working. How do you deliver the long term expected returns when interest rates are so low. If inflation is stickier, it complicates the problem further. Central banks do not have the tools to deal with supply side shocks.
COMMENT
We had two buy signals in the U.S. markets on March 14. TSX looks good with a positive fair market value, 33 1/2% higher than current price. It is also a commodity index and with shortages in commodities that is the place to be. Markets swing back and forth between the U.S. and Canada. Canada has been an under performer for 12 years relative to the U.S. The Nasdaq is 38% overvalued and the S&P about neutral without the FANG stocks. Think of the U.S. as a trading market with opportunities to play rebounds and Canada as an investment market. He likes the commodities sector with broad based metals, food, etc.
DON'T BUY
Even with a 35% correction it is not a value stock, trading at 12X book value and P/E of 28 and little yield. Beat numbers on Monday but has low growth rate. Fair market value is 43% below price.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Has interesting long term record and tends to peak at 4X book value. Got there again, then had setback so became a trading buy at $210 to $215. Be careful though - if it fails at this mark sell it. Fair market value is 83% higher so lots of upside now.
BUY
It is just above its very long term mid-point range. Conservatively run with an ongoing return of 11%. Buy it, hold it and forget it for a 3 to 5 year term. He is not concerned about the government raising taxes on the banks. Came through the pandemic unscathed.
BUY
Canadian energy companies are cheap and haven't yet recovered from pre-pandemic highs. This is a very good company with lots of upside. Fair market value is over 100% above current price. An easy near term target is $75.00.