COMMENT
Markets. We entered 2022 with a lot of volatility and uncertainty. The invasion of Ukraine elevated that across all sectors and asset classes. Commodities are spiking, and that's going to make the problem of inflation even worse, plus there might be a knock-on effect of slowing economic growth. In this environment, you want to focus on companies with resilient demand and some sort of inflation protection in revenues, and that's precisely where infrastructure equities shine.
COMMENT
Infrastructure sector. The space is quite broad. In general, infrastructure equities provide daily essential services to a majority of the population in a supply-constrained manner. Even if growth is slowing, their essential nature makes them not likely to see as much demand destruction as the cyclicals. Think waste collection and water. A lot of the business models have inflation-linked contracts. Putting these two things together, infrastructure is a great place to be, whatever geopolitical path we take from here. The sector provides defensiveness plus inflation protection.
COMMENT
Advice for clients amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Every client is different. Take a long-term perspective. The invasion has put the spotlight on too much dependency on Russian oil and gas, especially for Europe. For the next 6-18 months, we're going to see greater focus on renewable procurement, more R&D in technologies, and a push from countries including Canada and the US to generate more energy domestically. This is a different tune than recent narratives, but civil rights and security and safety of the world take precedence over ESG concerns. Certain things can be done to mitigate the carbon impact. We need to get more oil from the Canadian oil sands and from US shale. We just can't depend on a country like Russia, given the aggression they've shown on the local stage.
COMMENT
Is there more support for Canadian infrastructure now? Too early to tell. Since the pandemic, there's been a slowdown in Canadian and US names. Yes, the path forward is to go green, but Europe is so dependent on Russian oil and gas. To reduce Russia's leverage, Europe needs to get oil and gas from somewhere else, and Canada and the US are probably two of the best options. We'll see a small increase in production to allow us to transition to a more renewable-friendly grid, and if that means 4-5 years of extra North American oil production, that's a good tradeoff to reduce dependence on Russia.
DON'T BUY
They help build the infrastructure, but then they leave. He prefers to own the companies that build the assets with JEC, but then collect the cashflows from the infrastructure project over the next 20-40 years. If he were going to choose one, it would be WSP, a higher quality player than JEC.
WEAK BUY
Engineering firms help build the infrastructure, but then they leave. He prefers to own the companies that build the assets with the engineers, but then collect the cashflows from the infrastructure project over the next 20-40 years. If he were going to choose one, it would be WSP, with its strong growth and good margin profile relative to competitors.
HOLD
One of the pre-eminent global infrastructure investors. Renewables and cell towers have sold off quite a bit, while BIP.UN has done quite well. This tells him there are better opportunities, based on valuation, in individual names outside of BIP.UN. Still, excellent as a long-term hold.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Debt is manageable. Acquisition of KSU is transformative, as CP will be the only Class 1 railroad that runs from Canada through the US to Mexico. Lots of opportunities. Likely to see earnings upgrades over the next 2-3 years. Rough start to the year, but he'd add on a meaningful pullback.
WAIT
One of the better positioned mid-stream companies. Robust growth profile. Likes the business, large beat on results. He's owned it off and on, but better opportunities elsewhere. Once concern is competition from PPL-KKR joint venture.
PARTIAL SELL
Done well, time to sell? No stock goes up forever. His advice is to diversify and own some of the towers. So perhaps sell half, and get into AMT, SBAC, or CCI. Carriers have held up quite well, whereas the towers have sold off in reaction to interest rates. In general, if the carriers are doing well, the towers will do well.
COMMENT
Towers or carriers? His advice is to diversify from carriers and own some of the towers such as AMT, SBAC, or CCI. Carriers have held up quite well, whereas the towers have sold off in reaction to interest rates. In general, if the carriers are doing well, the towers will do well.
HOLD
US won't try to rock the boat with its most important trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Well positioned to benefit from US growth. Build Back Better will take a Herculean effort from many countries to get anything done, and this is bullish for Canadian and US names. He'd still prefer to own the concessions than build the concessions, as that's how you get more long-term value.
WEAK BUY
Good results, but not as good as expected, hence the muted reaction. Likes the strategy of low-risk storage assets, plus diluent recovery unit. Good position to continue growing. Given M&P appetite in Canada, could possibly be a takeout. Still upside, but in low double digits.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 04/21, Down 26%) Frustrating. Very positive catalysts over the past year, but problem is that it's a small-cap, renewable with EM exposure. No fundamental issues, selloff is driven by market rotation and sentiment. Buying on pullbacks. Focus on long-term opportunity.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 04/21, Down 9%) Market's pricing in a potential fail of its ongoing acquisition. Concerns about carrier consolidation and interest rates have put pressure on. These are not fundamental issues. Inflation escalators built into contracts. Still buying, lots of upside. Excellent for long-term.