HOLD
On par with CNQ, which he loaded up on. Both great companies, good additions to your Canadian portfolio. You want access to the commodity in an inflationary environment. Not terribly expensive. If you own it, sit on it, as energy looks tight for the next number of years.
HOLD
He loaded up on it at its lows. A great company, good addition to your Canadian portfolio. You want access to the commodity in an inflationary environment. Not terribly expensive. If you own it, sit on it, as energy looks tight for the next number of years.
DON'T BUY
Fantastic business and it's proven itself. Great company, but expensive based on size of its business. It might be fantastic 5 years from now, but you're guessing what the future is. The liquidity problem is not going away, and he's staying away from high valuation businesses. He wants companies where the pricing is going up as well as the margins.
COMMENT
The story of Nortel. The selloff in 2000 just creamed the market. Nortel was trading at 100x earnings, and it turned out those earnings were fraudulent. It also had a lot of debt, compared to competitors that were debt free. Competitors survived, but Nortel didn't. A company like SHOP isn't really in the same situation.
BUY
A great recycling business. Margin compression, as they can't raise prices as input costs have increased. Cyclical. He's hoping it's close to the bottom of the cycle. Looking out 2 years, the stock could be in high teens if not $20. He's hoping for a 50% return when the cycle changes.
WAIT
An incredible wave of money went into the renewables about a year ago. Relatively expensive on underlying cash generation at 15-20x cashflow. Not cheap yet. Very good asset managers, so it trades at a premium.
RISKY
Junior producer. One of the better growth stories. Held up by political risk as to where the mines are located. Market doesn't seem to want to take the extra risk of exotic parts of the world. It could make a ton of money a year from now. For those who look through the risks.
TOP PICK
Room to run in energy producers. Trades at a discount to NAV of $20-21. Incredible for a $14 stock. Nat gas looks tighter for longer. With the money ARX will make, the market will push up the price at some point. Yield is 2.78% (Analysts’ price target is $19.12)
TOP PICK
Consistent cashflow business. Consolidator of the Canadian distribution space. Throws off tons of money. Every year the company grows. Trades at a great price. Yield is 5.58%. (Analysts’ price target is $15.67)
TOP PICK
Merging with AEM. A clean story. His play to be in the gold space but with a very specific choice. Detour Mine is a big asset they can grow around. EMs care more about gold than the developed world. When the world starts growing again, money will come back to the sector and this will be good for gold stocks. Good hedge to geopolitical risk. Yield is 1.93%. (Analysts’ price target is $63.24)
COMMENT
Hot inflation data and future rate hikes Future interest rate hikes will depend on economic data. Remember that WTI last year this time was $59 and now it's $90, a 35% increase that has a huge impact on inflation. But as we move forward, this rate of change will decline with some hot data (like today) for the next few months, but that will wane. Also, the Fed is still buying bonds now. The next few months will be volatile. She doesn't think the Fed will hike 50 basis points at once. The Fed will be very transparent. Don't forget that the federal debt is $30 trillion, so each 1% increase is $300 billion in interest.
BUY
A sector to buy now during rising inflation and rising rates are small caps. To buy this, own SVAL which has good exposure to small, regional banks and small-cap value industrials.
BUY
MS made a buy call today and shares are popping. When Facebook renamed itself to Meta, Roblox enjoyed the halo effect. Unlike FB, Roblox has real metaverse products. Revenues from Q3-2020 to Q3-2021 were up 100% with $500 million in revenues and $170 million in free cash flow. It's a sticky platform that pays outside developers to create content for users. The NFL, Sony and Warner Brothers just entered partnerships with them. She's looking out for this quarter is the effect of the new Squid Game content that got added to Roblox that drove new users. She has sold calls on this name, though, because it's a volatile name, but she also owns it long.
BUY
Healthcare stock with a 5-year horizon? She prefers owning individual names, but XLV includes Thermo-Fisher, BMO, Abbott, etc. Healthcare will change a lot in coming years, and XLV gives you a good representation.
BUY
You can sell the June $300 calls and collect $19, which is over 7% income, and still have 20% upside.