COMMENT
Markets and rising rates. He's not tempted to lighten up on stocks. You have to pick your spots, as we're in this reflationary environment. Speed of the move higher in rates spooked some folks, as they weren't positioned correctly. What works with falling rates is different from rising rates. Any time you have a move that happens quickly, and the Fed became quite hawkish, it causes people to move quickly and create some uncertainty. People are figuring out where they need to be. If we thought the rate increases were going to cut off economic growth, then the things that are leading the rally would not be. The things that are highly economically sensitive are leading. If the rate rise slows, perhaps some things will find a footing, and you're seeing this with large cap tech. But they won't become leadership again anytime soon.
COMMENT
Glory days for tech over for now? Yes, on a relative basis. Commodities have been leading the S&P for the last year. More likely to have cyclical, relative advances versus the market. The secular, long-term move is that we get outperformance from banks, materials, and industrials, because pricing is firm and margins are going higher. Huge dichotomy in earnings and revenue from those groups versus the rest of the market.
COMMENT
Inflation affecting corporate profits? In some sectors it is, but not in others. Input costs can be added to the price for customers, especially for goods that get used up and replaced such as groceries, semiconductors, or metal producers. Those industries seem pretty well insulated at this point. Some of it is companies wanting to fatten their margins. In energy and materials, margins are expanding dramatically. Expects many S&P earnings to be better than forecast. This "dance of rotation" will continue for quite some time.
BUY
As an income stock? Upstream commodity producers are likely to benefit from inflation and the commodity super-cycle. Prices and volumes are strong. Note that the dividend moves around. A really good one to insulate you from inflation.
BUY
Reflationary theme will come in steps, and this is a good company to ride that theme with. Transports are recovering very quickly since the January correction. Executing very well. Participating in the rally.
HOLD
A defensive dividend player. It will do fine. Slow dividend grower. Growing earnings at 5-6%. Not most inflation-protected, but a workhorse. You also need significant dividend growth of 10-14% a year in your portfolio. A volatility dampener. Look for dividend growers, as that's the theme that will benefit you the most in a rising rate environment. Good yield of 5.5%.
COMMENT
Dividends and rising rates. Look for dividend growers, as the theme of dividend growth will benefit you the most in a rising rate environment.
COMMENT
Oil & gas. Owns both oil and gas producers. His second-largest weight right now, at about 16% energy, whereas the S&P is only about 4%. There are legs in this rally. Also a great place for dividend investors.
SELL ON STRENGTH
Not impossible to get a bounce between now and April. But there are better neighbourhoods to focus on. A tough group. Market's moving away from this group to things that have an immediate impact from stronger pricing. No great pricing power.
BUY
Customers are mainly tech companies, so it got caught in the crosshairs. One of the highest growth banks in the universe. It's recovering much faster than the tech sector. Now above 150-day MA. A buy here. Not expensive at 19x earnings.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 11/21, Down 9%) He got stopped out. Auto stocks have been consolidating on supply chain issues. If it can break $85 and get back above the 200-day MA, he'd be a buyer. It's inexpensive compared to peers. Rising relative to the market.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 11/21, Up 2%) Slightly higher rates will not derail the millennials in family formation mode. He'd buy here. Risk/reward is very good over the next 12 months. Use $60 as a stop.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 11/21, Up 20%) Picks and shovels. You want to own this if you think we're in a commodities cycle. Has pivoted into copper, in addition to gold and silver. Lots of room for revenue expansion.
BUY
Doing well compared to the group. Long way to go. There will be volatility, but energy is underowned. Great assets. Prefers CNQ, but both are great. Trades at 8x next year's earnings, balance sheet good, paying down debt.
BUY
There will be volatility, but energy is underowned. Great.