Market Outlook The market is trying to decide where it wants to go and the S&P500 is 30% higher than levels pre-COVID. There has been a lot of government stimulus. The new COVID variants are causing the market to pause for now. The market is "shoot first ask questions later", meaning investors are looking well past the current environment. Companies that were first hardest hit recovered well and now they have to justify the earnings outlook. You may have to pay a premium for the very best companies that will benefit most post-COVID.
Commodity prices have been very strong. She wonders if we are at a point where we see demand destruction. Farmer incomes are strong. There has been some US Administration tension over Belarus that may keep the potash market tight. They raised guidance and beat earnings, yet the stock sold off. She still owns it in their Canadian equity portfolio and continues to like it here.
A low multiple stock compared to its peers. They are going through a restructuring that is proving more challenging than expected. She thinks it will take another 4-6 quarters to really get things going. Beyond that you need a good track record on execution.
They went through a time when the multiple was downgraded until they decided to get out of set contracts. With infrastructure spending go up there are a lot of good tailwinds for them. There is a lot of stimulus going into their industry and its fragmented there now, which should create good opportunities.
Taking a hit lately? A couple of years ago it was the only energy stock that could keep up with the TSX, but then they started having operational issues. Based on recent company comments, there appears to be room to improve on this. It may take time for them to come out the penalty box, but seem to be coming out. It should go up.
integrated oils
Natural gas prices are being pressured due to a lack of cold weather this time of year. Rest of year forecasts, however, call for colder than normal weather. It is a very strong operator, well positioned in the natural gas space. It has shifted from mid-cap to larger investors. With years of underinvestment, they feel the sector has room for further improvement despite the recent run up in equity prices. A lot of cash flow should be coming. They like it here and own quite a lot.
oil / gas
A lot of good things working for them -- ecommerce and trucking demand. Management has done a great job in extracting value from their acquisitions. The UPS assets they bought are paying off quicker than expected. It has held up well as investors have been rotating into non-COVID benefactor companies -- she likes its ability to hold value. It is possible it may just go sideways. They have very little exposure after having done well over the last year and a half.