BUY
RTX vs. LMT vs. GD When analyzing a company, you also want to analyze its peers. This is the case with Lockheed Martin. Instead, look at General Dynamics. They acquired CSRA, entrenched in cyber defense, and this is where corporate and government money will be invested. Also see Raytheon, a hybrid of a commercial application with a defense contractor. RTX has great promise, undervalued, considerable cashflow in the future.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 25/20, Up 11%) Quarter after quarter, it disappoints. Not all divisions are getting traction. There are lots of other opportunities in tech.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 25/20, Up 79%) Good operators. Macro issues sorted themselves out. The valuation's moved up to fair value. Continues to be a good holding. E-commerce will drive organic growth.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 25/20, Up 57%) Electrical and machinery business. A true industrial. As we come out of Covid, and early in the new cycle, it will benefit from a global synchronized recovery. 5% free cashflow yield, good balance sheet, well managed.
DON'T BUY
Involved in big data. Excellent earnings, revenues projected to rise, stock price fell. How could this happen? Investors got giddy about the future, and the stock price got ahead of its fundamentals. Good company, lots of opportunity. Be aware that it has only the one customer in the US government and CIA.
COMMENT
How to participate in the EV revolution? He's purchased GM. A long time coming, and now it's a practical opportunity. Planning 30% EV offerings by 2025, and 100% by 2035. Tesla has built a fantastic brand, but there's a fundamental disconnect between the stock price and the fundamentals. GM is trading at 6x enterprise value to EBITDA, whereas Tesla is trading at 95x. A number of the EV upstarts will fail, just as most of the upstarts in the car industry failed at the beginning of the 1900s. GM is in a good spot in terms of innovation and cost structure.
BUY
GM vs. TSLA He's purchased GM. The EV revolution has been a long time coming, and now it's a practical opportunity. 30% EV offerings by 2025, and 100% by 2035. Tesla has built a fantastic brand, but there's a fundamental disconnect between the stock price and the fundamentals. GM is trading at 6x enterprise value to EBITDA, whereas Tesla is trading at 95x. GM is in a good spot in terms of innovation and cost structure.
DON'T BUY
TSLA vs. GM He's purchased GM. The EV revolution has been a long time coming, and now it's a practical opportunity. 30% EV offerings by 2025, and 100% by 2035. Tesla has built a fantastic brand, but there's a fundamental disconnect between the stock price and the fundamentals. GM is trading at 6x enterprise value to EBITDA, whereas Tesla is trading at 95x.
DON'T BUY
Enticing dividend gets a lot of attention. But you don't want to lose capital at the same time. Time Warner acquisition continues to do well in streaming, but there's a lot of competition. Verizon has the leg up on 5G. Questions whether the carriers are going to be the true beneficiaries of 5G. Look elsewhere. Yield is 7.1%.
DON'T BUY
Lots of red flags. Not investment grade. Speculative. Lots of debt. Big unfunded pension liability. Cashflow challenged. Selling off the crown jewels to survive.
DON'T BUY
Virus issues have plagued cruise lines for a long time. Covid brings that concern to the forefront. Not sure how excited the general public will be to take a cruise. There are better opportunities. Instead, look towards online booking opportunities. Dividend suspended.
DON'T BUY
Would you be a buyer of the airlines now? Pre-Covid, the airline industry was as healthy as it ever was. This underlies the importance of diversification. That black swan can come from nowhere and hit you. He wouldn't look at airlines right now. Severe financial damage has been done. A lot of work to do to get back to the metrics from before.
TOP PICK
A new position for him. Small cap. 19x earnings, good balance sheet. Debt to total capital is 22%, relatively low. Recent acquisition gives them entry into 5G. Will benefit from infrastructure build. Backlog is about 2x annual sales. Yield is 0.76%. (Analysts’ price target is $127.50)
TOP PICK
Grandaddy of money centre banks. Arguably the best run bank in the world. Trading and investment banking did extremely well. These will do less well in 2021, but steepening yield curve will make up for it. Yield is 2.48%. (Analysts’ price target is $146.96)
TOP PICK
Excellent earnings, yet stock sold off. A company that can grow all the metrics like revenue, cashflow, earnings in the mid-high teens for the foreseeable future. The absolute best place to be for the 5G revolution. Patents and licensing, plus chip operations. Yield is 1.80%. (Analysts’ price target is $172.70)