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Market. This one of those good but horrible snapshots when you can't look at your typical indicators. What got us here is liquidity. Look at corporate credit spreads; Financial conditions. The turn back in the US is not going to continue. People demand more and more on corporate bonds than on treasury. People are pricing more and more into the default of that corporate bond. The trend is important. Rising interest rates and reducing liquidity mean you should wait this one out. You should always ask if you would buy something today when deciding whether to dump it. Growth is slowing and credit is becoming more unavailable. Don't catch a falling knife. You have to watch liquidity.
WATCH
They have a lot of cash and a great policy of returning 50% of cash flow to shareholders. It is a really robust balance sheet that can survive the test of time. He is neutral and is not putting money into tech right now. Watch it and when liquidity in the markets improved you would jump. He thinks there might be a kick to Canada on the current Huawei news story.
WATCH
The gaming space is great but you have to have a real stomach for it. They used to be known for one hit wonders. The gaming in-buys business kind of flattened out the model because it was a recurring revenue model. It is 22 times earnings. It will probably take some time. They have a good pipeline and a good model but this one will take some torque. Wait for the right time. This is a more stable story now.
WATCH
They are just so consistent. The health care sector is just so influenced by politics. But these guys reduce costs for governments. This stock has been spectacular. They have scale and a phenomenal management team that returns capital to shareholders. He would not buy more at this time.
WATCH
You should expect them to boost reserves from the fallout of the Malaysian issue. It is at the lower end of the trading range but you want to see the smoke clear. He would wait on this one until you see the resumption of the trend.
DON'T BUY
Dollar store names came to the forefront in the financial crisis. Americans shifted their budgets to an experience that was better than they expected. Wal-mart suffered from this. On a unit basis you are paying more for what you get from these stores. It is growing but okay and they are fixing parts of it. It is 20 times so a little rich. He is sitting this one out.
COMMENT
The S&P 500. He has never heard of a triple bottom. You can't hang your hat on it. It is based on statistics. A triple bottom has high odds of not holding. It is a fantastic way to gain exposure but no matter how they structure it, you are still buying the S&P 500.
WATCH
He has always struggled with this one because it has struggled for so long. You have to pay attention to distributors. They are looking better. They are in the midst of a turnaround. You want to see it hang in, in the face of a tough market.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 07/17, Down 10%) He likes aerospace and defense. He would not buy it today because the valuation is high and it is cyclical. Trump this week flagged how much they are spending on defense.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 07/17, Down 22%) Materials were down broadly. There is unquestionable value to be realized. Ultimately the input costs won and it has not performed as well as expected.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 07/17, Down 5%) He got out months ago. They technically stopped out of his process.
DON'T BUY
Memory chips. Margins used to be fantastic. The semis and memory manufacturers are a great long term investment. He is on board. They are doing a good job. He would not buy it today because it does not check the technical box. You are in a negative earnings revision cycle.
SELL
A great company. Generics are fantastic. There are internal issues. A lot of people are getting lured here by single digit earnings growth. The fundamental picture is not strong here. He would take the loss. He would look at an ETF if you want to stay invested in Pharma. (Analysts’ price target is $23.00)
DON'T BUY
He likes it. It has a wild valuation, though. It has been slapped around rather hard. This is high growth, higher reward, higher risk. Fin tech he likes. One of the biggest risks is the copycat risk. It is a disruptor. It has first-mover advantage. He would not buy it now, but likes Visa and MasterCard.
DON'T BUY
There is some real growth and application but the company has struggled to be identified. You would hope to see a little more from them over 10 years. You realize a bunch of value and then it gets stuck in the soup again. There are simpler stories out there. It is trading rich for a story with volatile earnings.