Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Douglas Kee commented about whether SLF-T, FTS-T, BNS-T, ENF-T, VET-T, H-T, BCE-T, BIP.UN-T, DOL-T, NPI-T, FN-T, CWB-T, NWL-N, AQN-T, MSI-T, PPL-T, ECI-T, TD-T, IPL-T, CVE-T, SU-T, ALA-T, NTR-T, MFC-T, ZUB-T, ZBK-T, ZWC-T, ALA-T, ZEB-T, ZWB-T, DOL-T, ZWU-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Educational Segment. The Longest Bull Market? It depends on how you measure it. If you measure it on a close to close basis we have not had a 20% decline since the bottom in 2009. But if you measure it on a peak to trough basis, we had a 20%+ decline in 2011. When you buy and sell, what you buy and sell is critical. We are definitely late in the cycle. He thinks you need to be cautious.
He's expecting the US to slap more tariffs on China, which is not good. True, China has been taking advantage of other markets, but tariffs won't help markets either. Canadian markets are going sideways whereas U.S. markets are rising. Valuations peaked at 19x and are now 17.5x, because earnings have risen. Good, but what will happen next year? He predicts earnings to be positive in 2019 due to less regulation in the U.S. and a tax structure that encourages business. He is cautious in this 10-year bull run. Earnings are going up, but there is pressure on wages and more tariffs. He has trimmed positions to rise to 7% cash and is not spending dividends. The market is fairly valued, but things could go wrong on the trade front.
He sold it this year, because he was reducing his energy weighting. New managers have done well selling assets to reduce debt. Have also lowered costs. They don't have the refining capacity, so that's a problem. By 2020, the debt should be low enough to increase the dividend, though he had been expecting 2019.