Today, Richard Croft and Ryan Bushell commented about whether FDN-N, OUSM-N, JPM-N, WMT-N, ENB-T, TD-T, VET-T, BNS-T, ARX-T, MFC-T, EMA-T, ACO.X-T, SU-T, SRU.UN-T, RNW-T, FTS-T, ENF-T, DOL-T, CNR-T, CJR.B-T, RUS-T, ALA-T, RCI.B-T, ITP-T, NA-T, CP-T, CNR-T, ROKU-Q, ZWB-T, KBWD-Q, BLK-N, PBP-N, EUFN-Q, BAC-N are stocks to buy or sell.
Trump is the biggest influence on the market, both tailwind and headwind: the U.S. tax reform to lower corporate rates, then starts a trade war, creating a vacuum of uncertainty. Is he doing this to open markets down the road? If so, they should play out by the end of 2018, which is a good impetus for markets. Investors should look at assets not as impacted by trade, but benefit from the tax cuts, such as the banks and tech companies. He doesn't believe the US has huge trade surpluses as Trump claims, because so much of U.S. output is services.
Worth buying a few hundred September calls? He likes this bank. They passed their stress test. He needs to see movement on the 10-year rates. If there's no bump, then BAC will have a hard time moving up--a serious headwind. The 10-year should be higher now. If we get an inverted yield curve, that leads to a recession within a year.
(Past Top Pick, July 17, 2017, Up 5%) It owns the S&P 500 and writes covered calls on it. It typically underpforms the S&P in a rising market and does better in a flat/down market. It's a low-risk ETF and pays a monthly income, but
they're U.S. gains, so that's not good for tax-paying Canadians. This is okay if you want U.S. income.
What's a low-risk ETF for Canadian banks, and is this still a good ETF to be in now during a trade war? He doesn't think there will be a trade war, but banks are the safest place to be in Canada. They make a lot of money and pay good dividends around 4%. They should do okay during rising interest rates. Instead, if you have low/medium-risk, then diversify into fixed income as rates rise. Look at floating rate preferreds.
These are mostly the smaller regional banks, which are raising their dividends after passing the stress test. Higher interest rates will not hurt these dividends unless we get rising rates at the short end of the curve without a commensurate rise of the 10-year rate. Nothing wrong with this ETF at all.
If you were to sell a covered call at 6 months out on the banks, like TD at $76, it doesn't get taken, then drops to $74 before the end of the contract, would you re-sell that $74 contract knowing you would lose money if you were to get called out? Probably not. You would lose your winners and retain your losers, which he doesn't advise. Otherwise, hang onto the stock.
Market. He thinks Canadian energy stocks should have performed much better given how oil prices, converted to Canadian dollars, has risen. Following the OPEC meeting and strong demand forecasted for the latter half of the year, he expects some catch up in the sector. He adds geopolitics in Libya, Venezuela and other others should add to the head winds. He likes the Canadian banks, trading at 10-12 times earnings and there have been reports of good earnings growth. He would be adding to his holdings in this space.