Today, Robert Lauzon and Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether ZWE-T, HMMJ-T, HEJ-T, CXF-T, SHZ-T, ARX-T, KEYS-N, ENB-T, WCN-T, VZ-N, VOD-Q, CNR-T, ABX-T, CVS-N, CVS-N, V-N, SMG-N, AAPL-Q, BX-N, BMY-N, CJ-T, BAC-N, HIVE-X, SJR.B-T, ENB-T, REI.UN-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Educational Segment. The Best Market Return Indicator. The percentage of three asset classes that are part of the household assets. The value of your real estate, value of your portfolio and all liabilities. When everyone is in and have a high percentage of their household assets invested in markets, usually for the next 10 years, it is just less than 4% annualized. We are in a period now where a high percentage of household assets are in the market. This indicator has a 91% correlation to returns. This indicates we are late in the cycle.
Market. Over the last couple of weeks we saw trade, trades, trade and today we are down. We are sitting in the DOW right at the 200 day. We have not had a close below the 200 day since 2016. If it closes below there then we will test the 200 day on the S&P and if we break that we look at the lows from April and May to test out the downside. In Germany there has been pressure within Merkel's party. If things come apart in Italy it does not look like Germany will write a cheque for it. The more pressure we have on the US dollar, the more pressure we will have on the financial markets. Mid-2019 is where he thinks the recession will come. The market peaks about 8-9 months before a recession is labeled. By that time the markets are down 29% on average. The market peak should be early next year.
It is a long term hold. Around $110 there is a lot of technical resistance so you could take some money off the table short term. A global recession would bring the stock down.