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Market. The Trump trade lives on. It was the hoped for tax changes and deregulation that didn’t happen in 2017. Small caps, industrials, materials have benefited since September. He thinks we are entering the euphoria stage. There are opportunities but it is hard to argue the market is not expensive. Cannabis and Crypto sectors are indicative of the bubble Euphoria condition. Cannabis stocks have run ahead of themselves. The combined market cap compared to forward earnings result in huge multiples. There will be winners almost certainly – but only a handful. We don’t know how this will play out. He has been short energy for two years. Price momentum has been terrible for some time. But it is looking better from a price momentum point of view. This would be the best relative sector right now.

(A Top Pick Nov 3/17, Up 54%) They have all done really well. This one is the 4^th largest lumber player. The valuations now are not as cheap as when he bought them but the price momentum is still there. There is always a chance that someone takes them out. They have 60% production in the US so all tariffs would do is drive the price higher.

He has a small short position. It is not a high conviction short, but does not have a strong price momentum.

The acquisition is a big one and because of the size there is some fear they can’t get it done. There is more risk to this deal than normal. It is in no man’s land otherwise. It has not got strong price momentum, but has a good balance sheet.

He likes it. It is a long in three of his funds. It has good valuation. There is one particularly large seller and that has held back the price. He would like to see it stronger, but all of its peers are picking up good momentum. 16 times PE and a really solid balance sheet. It should get a pop when the last of the selling clears up.

He is not convinced that online streaming is why it is down. It is more likely that there is fear of a dividend cut coming. Hold off until after any cut happens. Their cinema business is under pressure. It was always viewed as a steady dividend payer but it is over 100% payout ratio now. They have a slowing growth business and will have to cut the dividend. If you saw a dividend cut that would probably be the day to buy it.

It has one of the best price momentums in the S&P but the valuation is out of this world. It has a lot of takeout multiple built into it. But it is one of the FANG stocks. This is part of the Euphoric trade that he worries about.

He does not buy or short gold stocks. From a momentum perspective, it fails poorly. With a trend down it will tend to get more selling until it reaches a floor, which it has not. There is not much cash flow and a small yield. It is a volatile stock.

Columbian producer. It is one of the energy stocks he managed to hold throughout the energy cycle. The valuation is reasonable and they have a big backlog of exploration. Really good net backs and a good quality management team that has really delivered. (Analysts’ target: $23.00).

They got into trouble last year. They paid a lot of money for an acquisition. They have since sold a lot of assets and de-levered. 7% cash flow yield vs. 4% for the group. They will have torque to an energy cycle that he feels in its early stages. (Analysts’ target: $15.00).

It was a top pick in the past. He likes it and it is held in his funds. They had a miss-step when they missed on results then did a transformational acquisition. We will have to see what this does for them.

He was short this a year ago, then they had an earnings beat and he got shaken out of his short. Now he is long. There has not been a consistent trend. It is a business that is transforming into a software and security business.

It has gotten ahead of itself on valuation. It’s too expensive at this level.

He won’t trade it. When rates are rising, gold will be under pressure. It is cheap on a book value basis but you have a very volatile stock with poor price momentum. He would want to see a bottom.

It is a bit small cap for what he does. A reseller. They had a big run-up and since then has treaded water. It picked up some negative price momentum. It has a high yield. It has skinny margins so there is not a lot of room for error.