Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Bill Harris, CFA commented about whether WEF-T, KEY-T, CNQ-T, VII-T, FNV-T, THO-T, IPL-T, H-T, ROXG-T, TOU-T, ALA-T, PEY-T, TECK.B-T, DML-T, TV-T, ARX-T, AQN-T, XID-T, HHL-T, CPG-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Markets. The first one hundred days of Trump: It remains to be seen, but today we saw some of the rhetoric about trade and breaking NAFTA. This is what people were worried about. You will see markets getting a little nervous. He is looking for markets to go back to levels from around the time of the election in November over the next couple of months. Trump’s talk to CEOs about taxes to companies that moved production outside of boarders should be negative. Trump’s administration does not want to go down the road of a process where they get things done without congress. So far so good in this year’s earnings season, but expectations were high with a rally preceding it. A lot of good news is priced in.
ZEB-T & ZWB-T or Buy The Banks Directly? A covered call strategy takes a lot of work to implement so you would not want to do it yourself. He thinks without the covered call, this index will come down. You could buy the six banks yourself if your portfolio was big enough, but the covered call strategy would be a lot to implement yourself.
Educational Segment. Smart Factor ETFs. Research affiliates. He showed a graphic depicting smart factors that look at momentum, volatility, liquidity, profitability, etc. If you calculate excess returns, on average over history about 40 years you average about 2.4% in excess return. The average volatility is mostly less than the index. A second graphic looked at cross correlation of factor returns. If you put two together in a portfolio you get diversification.
Markets. They are having trouble getting access to pipelines. Gas is huge in North America. An exciting part of Western Canada is Gas. But you are having trouble getting your gas taken away. When gas supply came off last year, the price went up. Now Oil and associated gas is going to come on line. Companies are being asked to commit for very long terms for gas transmission and they just can’t commit to the current transmission prices that long (10 years). So companies now just can’t get all their gas to market.
If interest rates go up, this is the company that gets hit in this sector. He did not get excited about the price coming off a bit when interest rates went up. It is a great company and now his nervousness is more on the strength of the US$. He would buy if it was not for the macro factors. 5.5% yield.
It is hard for him to go down into smaller companies because of how his own company has grown (Liquidity issue with small companies). The zinc story has been developing for 5 years. If global growth does not fall off a cliff then zinc might get tight. This could be the year. Markets have already started to anticipate this. It is the first pure play in zinc.
The coal market in China was the big one. He bought the bonds when the coal market dropped off. They cut off mining of this in China and the price went way back up, but now coal production in China is starting to come back. He has RIO-N. There are too many things in TECH.B-T that can go the other way.
Stop Losses. Using stops in portfolios is a certain kind of style for people who do not understand diversification and are pure momentum players. It is fine. But the vast majority of guests on BNN are portfolio managers and have a long term horizon. Being stopped out can be silly in that case. He is going to do a series on them in his educational segment in the future.