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Market. He uses a number of different indicators. Started the year on defence, and moved onto offense around March, and has stayed in offense all throughout this period. During August, September and October, he saw a little weakness in momentum indicators, but in the last couple of weeks has seen those increase and improve. About 60% of US recessions start in the 1^st year of a presidential cycle. He likes to track the ISM, because both the manufacturing and services side gives him a really good gauge on what is happening in the economy. Those are longer-term ones. What he doesn’t want to see is below 50, which would indicate that the economy is contracting. He really gets concerned if we get to the 46 level on manufacturing. Anything below 46 pretty much gives you a 100% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. On a shorter term basis, he likes to track the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which will ebb and flow on a shorter-term wave basis, which will give him what is happening with the ISM.

There is no analysts’ coverage on this, which is why it is so volatile. They tend to grow annually, so if you look at them on a quarter by quarter, they tend to be pretty lumpy. That is the case at any time you are looking at auto sales. Just released earnings a couple of days ago. Two quarters back, investors were expecting they were going to match the number from the previous quarter. They didn’t, and that’s where the stock started to sell off. Their major client on the auto side has been Ford (F-N), but has Tesla (TSLA-Q) as a new client. Tesla prototypes were a little more difficult to get through and get built the way they had hoped, so it cost them a little more money, so they are going to return back to their regular margin profile. In their MD&A report they think they have $100 million revenue run rate over the next several years, which he thinks is pretty conservative on their part. He recently bought more.

A private equity where they invest in a number of companies and get royalty payments. In the last year, they have companies that failed to pay their royalties stream, historically more than they have ever had. There are 5 right now that are unresolved and are working through on different stages. The market got a little concerned on the length of time it has taken to get worked out. Payout ratio has crept up from 80% area and is around 100% now. If they can get the royalties worked out and get the royalties paying again, they’ll be fine from a payout ratio standpoint. If not, the market is concerned they will have to cut their payout ratio.

Hasn’t spent a lot of time looking at this, but it is kind of interesting in its tracking methods, such as pallets, trucks, toolboxes, etc. In the past, they’ve used RSD devices, but found that there were a lot of limitations. They now use a lower powered Bluetooth, kind of a new technology, which is still in the early stages. He would like to see more contracts signed and some revenue.

Had a nice little move in the last while. Fundamentally it ranks quite strong. Last quarter had good numbers. From a technical standpoint he wouldn’t be selling this. It looks like there is still a fair amount of growth, both organically and from acquisitions. Organic growth will come from it being a good crop year in the US, and the delay of buying equipment that has happened over the last 12 months. Farmers are expected to be buying replacement parts and equipment.

Used to own this but hasn’t for a while. Prefers Alaris (AD-T), because of size. Had trouble with a few of their investments, so the stock sold off. If you are a value investor, it might be a time to look at something like this. He would rather wait for a turn or improvement on their numbers.

Had owned this in the past. Because of earnings, it continues to drop-down in rankings. The concern is with the defence spending and their contracts, which tend to be pretty lumpy. They’ve really come back of late. If he sees some increase in US military spending, there is probably some potential, but will probably be several quarters in the works. Strong management. Wait until you see their next quarter.

There is a lot of stuff going on. They just declared a dividend. They’re also in the process of trying to buy a software business. Unrelated to the company, there is an activist shareholder who is questioning the acquisition. Looking at the underlying business, he was a little disappointed with what happened. Initially they were building a loan book, and basically funding US doctors’ receivables with Medicare. It sounded like a great business, but all of a sudden the loan book just flattened out. The company said they were going to go in a different direction with software as a service. That is when he got out.

(A Top Pick Nov 18/15. Up 12.38%.) He still likes this. Just reported and came in with fantastic numbers. There are 2 sides to this business. Easy Financial, the lending side, and the leasing side which is more the traditional business. He continues to see growth on the financial side. They made a real shift in their business by decreasing their Alberta business and increasing more of their Ontario and BC business. They stepped away from the rumoured purchase of the city book (?), which shows discipline by management. Still a Buy.

(A Top Pick Nov 18/15. Up 41.7%.) Had to trim this a few times over the past year when it became a bigger position in his portfolio.

(A Top Pick Nov 18/15. Down 71.15%.) This has been a huge disappointment. When they reported their quarter in January, you had to dig into the release to find out that they had a Medicare cut in one of their ventilator products, which was going to be a fairly significant hit. That is when he sold his holdings. They’ve now announced they are going to split the company into 2. This will be a tax loss selling candidate.

Just reported, which was followed by a significant drop off in share price. Had owned this in the past and continues to watch it. The market wants to see them translate revenue into EBITDA, and expenses have been a little high. There is probably some tax loss selling. These are the guys that are really selling the picks and shovels in the gaming business. They are building all the games that basically all gaming companies use. Made a lot of acquisitions recently, and the market wants to see how those shake down, and how it flows through to EBITDA. Ranks weak technically and fundamentally in his process.

This has lots of things going on right. With what has been going on with base metal prices recently, their cash flow will really start to ramp up. They are in the process of trying to sell one of their mines to the Chinese. Technically, it ranks fairly well, which probably has to do with increasing copper prices.

This is going to be a massive growing sector. Legislation has not been tabled yet, and all these stocks have been running up on anticipation of the government’s task force reporting later this month. It is probably going to be about nothing, and doesn’t think the public is going to get access to it. You have to watch for when the legislation gets tabled, probably in 2017. Valuations have run up so much they have to be dangerous.

This stock can be really volatile. Hit a new 52 week high today, and then pulled back about 25%. If buying, don’t do it in one big chunk. This is the biggest of all the Canadian licensed producers. They have about 20% of the patients in Canada, and are starting to look at diversifying out internationally. This might turn out to be the global leader in medical and recreational marijuana. The sector has run up so much, and they still don’t even have earnings or positive cash flow.