N/A

Energy. We have seen hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts in CapX spending in the industry. Feels the time for buying energy is probably coming quite soon. It is time for people to get interested in energy, because all the CapX cuts are going to impact production growth in the future, which is where the real opportunity lies. OPEC produces 2 million a day more than they were when all this started. Part of the problem has been OPEC itself, but also we have not had the kind of production we expected from the US, but that is coming. It has a lag time. When we saw the production cap happening in the US, a lot of it came with efficiency gains because of production cuts, and she doesn’t see that for this year, and this year the cuts are really going to impact. There could be a surprise to the upside because of how crude trades on this kind of behaviour. One caveat is that demand is going to be pretty decent this year, but there have been reports out that demand might slow down growth. However, thinks the oil sands is going to be challenged.

COMMENT

This is doing quite well in this environment. Has been able to grow its EBITDA this year. One of the lowest payout ratio companies in its universe. This presents an opportunity for people that are looking for a safe yield. The 6.5% dividend is absolutely safe.

COMMENT

A great company with one of the best management teams in Calgary. Has the oil upside which is where you really want to be right now, because the commodity is bottoming. Given where commodity prices are now, there are a lot of dividend cuts, and Torc hasn’t had its turn yet, but she feels management is considering it. The payout ratio is higher than comparable companies. Dividend yield of about 11%.

COMMENT

A natural gas specialist. This is a “Best in class” company in the oil/gas space. Has been able to maintain some growth in this environment as well as maintaining its balance sheet. They are really good at hedging. Have enormous torque to the Montney gas play, and there is a lot of upside to the story on this.

COMMENT

A great, solid, well-run company, and you can tell that by the way it trades. Free cash flow profile looks healthy, which is good for the investor. Because it is such a good quality company with less beta than the rest of the group, in a rising price environment you are not going to get as much appreciation as you would in some others. This is a company you don’t want to own coming out of a recovery. Also. refining margins are coming down. Feels some of the best upside is going to be in the pure play rather than in an integrated story.

RISKY

A player in Argentinian shale. A really interesting company, and if you have a little bit of money where you want to play some significant torque, this is an interesting one. Argentina for her is a “no go zone” because of their historical issues of taking assets away. However, the country is improving politically.

COMMENT

A very well-managed company with a strong cash flow profile. The opportunity for pipeline growth is diminishing. A company like this is good for a safe, secure dividend, but the market doesn’t like that its growth profile is limited. Dividend yield of 7.6%.

PARTIAL BUY

A Montney player with a lot of elements for a good potential story. Feels there is a lot of upside, especially with the Waskahigan play. With all these small gas companies, liquidity is a problem. This one has a pretty low debt to cash flow, but the room they have in their lines is somewhat limited. She would like to see it through another credit facility valuation, and that will be coming quite soon for a lot of these companies. Once you are quite certain that the liquidity is there, it would be a good entry point. It is worth a small turn at these prices.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 12/15. Down 77.71%.) This has been a disappointment. Had problems with the Albanian government, but the tax issue should get sorted out sometime this quarter. Great quality company, and its assets are phenomenal. In a rising oil price environment, this is a great place to be.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 12/15. Up 4.76%.) This company is extremely impressive. It has done everything that a company should be doing in this environment. Had lots of free cash flow potential and an extremely healthy balance sheet.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 12/15. Down 53.5%.) Lots of free cash flow and dividend growth potential is still there in a high oil price environment, but their hedging has rolled off, which makes things a little more challenging. It also increases their debt. Too many people were hiding in this story. Thinks very highly of management. Dividend yield of 7.6%.

COMMENT

No money is being made on heavy oil. All the money is being made in the light oil Eagleford play, where they have partnered with Marathon in Texas. An excellent way to play a recovery if you believe in a recovery in oil prices. They have problems on the debt side. At risk of reaching covenants yet again, but thinks they have offense (?), so there is upside for equity holders. Without higher oil prices, this story is quite impaired. If looking for an opportunity on an upside in oil, a small position could be okay.

HOLD

An excellent quality company which has done really well. They have been able to grow in this environment. A low cost producer and this is an excellent environment. Will get some really good deals. Some good optionality here for higher natural gas prices.

SELL

A challenged company. Has one of the cleaner balance sheets, however management misstepped when they decided they were going to pay the dividend with all shares, and then decided to remove the dividend altogether. This is the trouble when you have one primary shareholder, as they essentially dictate what happens to the company. Doesn’t feel the upside is as great as with other companies. If you own, consider switching.

DON'T BUY

A challenge in that you have to have a significant bullish sentiment on oil/gas prices, especially oil, to be invested in it. Has significant debt. The maturity for the debt is pretty long dated, such as 2020-2021, however their interest payments per BOE is around $10. They are attempting to address this by potentially selling the access pipeline, but they didn’t talk about this very much in their quarter. She would stay on the sidelines until you know where oil prices are going to go and that management is able to address their debt burden.