This has gone through quite a few permutations for the last few years. It doesn’t have a well defined seasonal trend. Technically it has been an upward trend since mid-2014, but seems to be peaking out from the middle of April, and is now starting to move to the downside. It could come down to its previous support level of around $21.
The chart indicates that it is trying to bottom, which is encouraging. There are slight pauses of relative strength which is also encouraging. Below its 20 day moving average. The technicals are getting lined up, but the trend is still on the downside. It is probably getting lined up for a seasonal trade starting in July.
Longer-term charts indicate this is still going higher. Typically people buy cars in the spring, so the auto sector does really well at that time of year until the beginning of May. After that seasonality tends to slow down. This stock is clearly in an upward trend and just broke through a new all-time high. It is outperforming the TSE composite and is well above its 20 day moving average. Technically you are in gear. You want to continue holding this as long as the technicals remain positive.
This has been doing amazingly well in the last little while. It has recently re-established an upward trend and broke through a new high. Seasonality tends to be very similar to the financial service sector and has reached the end of it seasonal strength. Watch for signs of technical weakness going forward, which will be the time to take some profits.
Base metal stocks have very distinct seasonality. There are 2 of them. One of the better ones is normally from January until April of each year. On a technical basis, it has done very well and has just broken through new highs. Stock is in an upward trend and is outperforming the market. Even though the period of seasonal strength has ended, it is still a winner and you want to stick with it. Look for opportunities to take some profits, and that will probably happen within the next 2-3 weeks. We are already seeing signs that copper and zinc prices have already rolled over and are showing signs of weakness.
Crude Oil. On a seasonal basis it has its strengths from around the end of January right through until the beginning of August. On the other hand, just a couple days ago on a short-term basis, it broke down through a short-term support level. The seasonality may be peaking out a little bit earlier than usual this year. Technically, it has recently been in an upward trend, but is starting to stall. He really doesn’t have a strong opinion on crude oil as the seasonality and technicals are not really coming together.
Has chosen this as his single stock to outperform the market during 2015. Had looked like uranium prices had finally bottomed at around the $28 per pound level. It had actually got as high as $40. Technicals have been fairly positive in the last little while, but the price of uranium has gone from $40-$35, which is not supposed to happen. This has caused the stock to slow down, but it is still in an upward trend. He wouldn’t be overly concerned, but seasonality does not support this particular trade.
This is a consumer staple stock which normally does okay at this time of year. Consumer staple stocks are the best performing sector from May to October. It doesn’t mean that they go up a lot, just that they go down less then the rest of the market. Technicals are not so good. It is in a downward trend, underperforming the market, below its 20 day moving average and as yet has shown no signs of bottoming. Getting very close to its support level, so your downside risk is probably minimal. However, your upside potential is not the greatest.
This has very strong seasonality. Its best time is from October until early January. This can show positive signs even earlier than October. Historically it tends to bottom right around June-July, and starts to perform during that time, but doesn’t make you any money. Technically it is finally starting to show signs of bottoming, which is very encouraging. Still too early and he would encourage you to wait until October, but on occasion this can start to show its upward trend as early as the end of June.
You want to set up your portfolio so that when the summer rally happens, (he thinks it will happen between now and the end of October) you have the ability to go into it. This is short-term corporate and government bonds, basically a form of cash, giving you the ability to take some cash out for investments. In the meantime, you pick up a little bit of return.