They had a decent move and are not cheap. He has not sold any shares yet. It has worked out quite nicely in their portfolio. He thinks it could go to a double. There is a lot of liquidity that is trapped. If money moves into growth stocks, then this one could really benefit. He really needs to see the back of the bond yield to go up for that to happen. It is at a record high right now.
It is okay to hold this stock. It is a derivative of oil because of the momentum out of Western Canada. He thinks we are at $50-60 this year and $60-70 next year. At that rate Calgary will do ‘okay’. Then there will always be a discount on this stock. He was short at the beginning of this year, but is not any longer.
TCK.B-T is pulling back on coal shipments, announced today. You have a lot of time before you buy into CP-T. It is very expensive. He admires management and had a positive oil market work in his favour. Commodities are starting to work to their disadvantage now. He is very cautious on the stock. Now is the time to take your profits if you held it over the last few years.
They are a small cap REIT. For the most part he is not interested in REITs. These guys go to university towns and reformat buildings to facilitate university residence. Their big competitor is the university itself, which find buildings cost too much when you consider the services to operate residences. This business model has been exploited in the US and UK and thinks it is coming to Canada. There is a new stock issue coming and it appears to be an attractive business model. Talk to your advisor. No yield yet and highly illiquid. Don’t buy it today, but wait for the new issue. Their returns per unit of housing are quite high.
It is about 7-8% of the TSX composite. He doesn’t care if it is in the index. They are a roll up story and these tend to end in tears. He does not see the growth in the business, but the market does. Momentum is a wonderful thing if you are on the right side of it. This one will NEVER be held in the portfolio. It is noise.
Markets. The underlying constant is the growth. The oil fall has given cover and inflation and Cap X have come down, but underlying things are quite strong. He sees an overheated economy next year, primarily in the US. There will be an 8 month lag for Canada. The balance sheet of the average consumer in the US is actually quite healthy. Inflation can be an incentive for people to make major purchases before the price goes up next year. He sees growth rather than defense. He is out of anything that has done well over the last 5 years.