His third largest holding. They have just been able to start flowing money through to shareholders as a dividend, 6.67%. They keep harvesting cash and doing deals. They have in excess of 30 royalty deals. They stumbled once last year and there is hope they can get about half of their million dollars back. The market has written that off entirely. This is going to be a buy and hold for him.
They are in one of the most economic oil plays in Canada. There will be a lot of assets for sale. The market thinks there will be wildly accretive acquisitions. His concern is that the stock has risen so high that the expectations are almost impossible to meet. That is why this is not a name he owns.
He would hold off temporarily. There was a hold period after their IPO that comes due at the beginning of May so there may be some short term headwinds. It is possible the IPO shareholders who wanted to sell before May shorted the stock instead. At that time he will increase his weighting in the stock. They potentially have a funding shortfall late this year or early next, but the market knows about this.
You want to buy the higher quality rigs. The crummiest rigs will probably not come back into service for a couple of years. The service sector does better as you come off a bottom and the best of those are the land drillers. These stocks do well several months ahead of the sector in general. 4.34% dividend.
(Top Pick March 10/14, Down 14.12%) They are a lower cost operator. He sold this a couple of months after recommending it. Their challenge has been that their industry has been wildly successful in getting production growth and now there is a severe shortage of pipelines in the region so the price they sell for is lower than other regions in the US. He sold when a major pipeline was deferred by 6-9 months.
(Top Pick March 10/14, Up 14%) This is a business model that is based on sustainability. One of the best niche oil players he can find. Even with oil at $50 wells generate positive rates of return for them.