Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 31, 2014

This is his long-term Hold, and he has done tremendously well with it. There is nothing negative to say about the stock. The trend is definitely positive. Seasonals tend to benefit the first half of the year rather than the last half.

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This is his long-term Hold, and he has done tremendously well with it. There is nothing negative to say about the stock. The trend is definitely positive. Seasonals tend to benefit the first half of the year rather than the last half.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 31, 2014

*Short*. This is the period of seasonal weakness for housing stocks. This tends to impact the demand for lumber. September is particularly weak for the price of lumber. Has declined 80% of the time for the past 20 years for an average decline of 9%. If you do Short this, it’s a good idea to have a Stop at about $53.50.

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*Short*. This is the period of seasonal weakness for housing stocks. This tends to impact the demand for lumber. September is particularly weak for the price of lumber. Has declined 80% of the time for the past 20 years for an average decline of 9%. If you do Short this, it’s a good idea to have a Stop at about $53.50.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 31, 2014

When the gold miners report their earnings at the end of July that is the kick off to the start of the period of seasonal strength for the miners. This is experiencing a dip today, so you could take advantage of some of the weakness. The average gain between the end of July and September 25 is about 8%.

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When the gold miners report their earnings at the end of July that is the kick off to the start of the period of seasonal strength for the miners. This is experiencing a dip today, so you could take advantage of some of the weakness. The average gain between the end of July and September 25 is about 8%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 31, 2014

He likes this name. Its 2013 payout ratio is very high, but on his 2014 assumed numbers, from them turning around their West Tower asset. If they can achieve 4.5% margins in 2014 on that asset and 7% in 2015, he models a 55% 2015 payout ratio. If that’s the case, the 9.7% dividend is fine. He also sees it trading at a very fair value of 8.7X 2015 right now.

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He likes this name. Its 2013 payout ratio is very high, but on his 2014 assumed numbers, from them turning around their West Tower asset. If they can achieve 4.5% margins in 2014 on that asset and 7% in 2015, he models a 55% 2015 payout ratio. If that’s the case, the 9.7% dividend is fine. He also sees it trading at a very fair value of 8.7X 2015 right now.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
July 31, 2014

Just reported, and earnings were up with EPS at $0.20 versus his $0.08 estimate. They closed on Longview in June and reiterated their guidance. The dividend is fine and the payout ratio looks to be below 100%. As long as you are comfortable owning an oil name with oil falling, this is a good one. His instinct would be to try to buy it on a pullback.

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Just reported, and earnings were up with EPS at $0.20 versus his $0.08 estimate. They closed on Longview in June and reiterated their guidance. The dividend is fine and the payout ratio looks to be below 100%. As long as you are comfortable owning an oil name with oil falling, this is a good one. His instinct would be to try to buy it on a pullback.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 31, 2014

Reported today and their same property operating income was up by 1.4%. This has a $1.1 billion development pipeline that can drive growth for years. Their payout ratios are trending down which is a good thing. Very strong balance sheet. The quality is reflected in the valuation of 18X. If you want a retail REIT that maybe has more sizzle and upside, look at Calloway (CWT.UN-T). It has a higher dividend, lower payout ratio and trades at about 14.5X.

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Reported today and their same property operating income was up by 1.4%. This has a $1.1 billion development pipeline that can drive growth for years. Their payout ratios are trending down which is a good thing. Very strong balance sheet. The quality is reflected in the valuation of 18X. If you want a retail REIT that maybe has more sizzle and upside, look at Calloway (CWT.UN-T). It has a higher dividend, lower payout ratio and trades at about 14.5X.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
July 31, 2014

Last quarter it fell. There are concerns about its free cash flow. Paid out $22 million in dividends last quarter, and only earned $14.5 million. However, they do have $233 million in cash, so they can achieve that burn rate for 6-7 years if their business doesn’t turn around. Part of the reason for the big burn last quarter was a bit of a mismatch of capital, timing of the dividend and launch of new growth initiatives. Feels they have a pretty good shot of turning their business around, and asset management continues to be a good place to be. Pretty cheap but more for the risk tolerant.

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Last quarter it fell. There are concerns about its free cash flow. Paid out $22 million in dividends last quarter, and only earned $14.5 million. However, they do have $233 million in cash, so they can achieve that burn rate for 6-7 years if their business doesn’t turn around. Part of the reason for the big burn last quarter was a bit of a mismatch of capital, timing of the dividend and launch of new growth initiatives. Feels they have a pretty good shot of turning their business around, and asset management continues to be a good place to be. Pretty cheap but more for the risk tolerant.