Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Rick Stuchberry commented about whether COS-T, BRFS-N, TECK.B-T, DB-N, GM-N, BHP-N, DEO-N, HSBC-N, QCOM-Q, WPM-T, L-T, ALA-T, NA-T, IRE-N, WFC-N, YUM-N, TPR-N, F-N, PZE-N, MRE-T, TM-N, IPL-T, POT-T, VTI-N, G-T, AGF.B-T, ZWB-T, DOL-T, XRE-T, FFH-T, CCO-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Educational Segment. Market Breadth is Breaking Down. Chart 1 compared the NASDAQ index with the number of NASDAQ stocks making 52 week highs. They are diverging. 52 week highs are going down while market is going up. This often leads to a period of consolidation, 3 so far this year. We are seeing weaker and weaker participation. Chart 2 is percentage of stocks above their own 200 day moving average. Almost all are below that average near the time of major bottoms (>80%). Usually 75-80% are above this point at market highs. The number of stocks above 200 day average is currently declining. Chart 3 is advance/decline line. Showed how in 1998 this number peaked but markets went higher for 18 months with less and less stocks participating.
Markets. It’s been a mixed year. Some emerging markets have been quite flat. Canada has been pretty good and the US side has been spectacular. Up until a year or so ago, money coming from the federal reserve went to emerging markets. That changed a year ago. Looks like money flows are heading towards developed markets. Early tapering will keep helping for the time being. We will get a correction at some point. In a bull market, corrections are quick and not that extensive. Difficult to know when during next year it will come.
It is timely now. He just bought it. Replacing fertilizer is an ongoing thing. They have to put it on every three years. There are a lot of positive developments in Potash. Cartel is put back together. Pricing is going to be better than people think. Hold it and see what the spring brings. AGU is the grocery store for potash, not the same thing. POT is the low cost guy.
Markets. US markets near record highs once again. Didn`t think they would announce tapering this month and they did. The market took it well. The market likes clarity. The seasonals are strong in December through mid-January. Thinks it goes to 1850 in the next couple of weeks, at which time he would take some money off the table. In the last two weeks he has heard very little chatter about how good or poor the Christmas season shopping has been. There has been pretty good discounting in stores. Storms in Canada may impact pre-Christmas shopping. Crude oil will trade from mid-$80s to $110 for the next couple of years. Pipelines could make a difference in getting Canadian oil sold at world prices.