Thinks we are range bound in the oil industry. There is potential for a long term bottom developing. If we see it breaking resistance, that would be quite bullish. If it breaks support you don’t want to be there. Nibbling away here with a stop would be one way to play it.

oil / gas

Looks to be making a bit of a bottom. We are still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. If it starts making a higher low and higher high, then we should look at it. No technical evidence that the bottom is in yet.


Educational Segment. Effects of QE over the last 5 years. 2007-2012: There was a global wealth transfer from savers to the governments and the banks. Ultra low interest rates benefitted the governments because debt financing costs went down. If a lot of the money has to go back as we unwind it, there will be increased volatility. Low quality balance sheet companies will suffer. Can the US unwind this? He bets they can`t and have to step on the gas sometime next year.


Markets. Media is talking about tapering in December, but he doesn’t think so. Thinks there is zero probability of tapering in December and unlikely for the first six months of next year. Thinks you will have very strong returns in equities in the near term. Ultimately we are shifted towards growth and you should be focused there, eliminating defensive and cyclical equities. The resource sector will be fairly attractive. It is a longer term story. Energy looks quite attractive because it is linked to global growth. It has been phenomenal recently compared to the long term. Precious metals are the flip side of his growth argument. The safe heaven argument falls apart. The run has been over for two years.


This is the wrong time of year for beer stocks and the volumes are down anyway. Demographic is younger people not drinking beer. BUD sees volumes picking up next year. These names are seen as a little more growth.

breweries / beverages

Thinks it is fine. If you rate the N.A. companies, then go for GM-N who has outdone Ford. OEMs are running flat out right now. They are at a record high. A lot of younger buyers are now buying new cars. No problem with Ford specifically.


He is somewhat bearish on Europe but it is working right now. The financials should do well but this one is a hold. Europe is healing but problems are still there. Generally the German banks did take a lot of the subprime stuff. You are better with US names if you want to play the recovery story.