This one is on a risk/reward basis. Current thinking is that interest sensitives, be it bonds or utilities, sentiment is terrible, inflation is apparently coming and rates are going to be rising. He doesn’t think this thesis is a strong as we think. This is really a question of valuation. Yield of 4.07%.
For individual seasonality, you might want to look at www.equityclock.com. Hit Charts and punch in any stock you want and that will give you specific seasonality. There are usually 2 periods for energy, winter and another one in the summer. The little breakout a while ago, following the base pattern, was very positive. He expects it to get to around $4.50 at which point he would start paring.
Just announced 2nd quarter earnings, where adjusted net earnings dropped quite a bit and the stock dropped. Looks like they threw everything in but the kitchen sink. Sometimes when companies do this, as much as it causes havoc the day it happens, it sets the stage going forward for a positive announcement. Technically, it gapped up to around $72 and it doesn’t break down below that, it is pretty good. $70-$72 is probably a pretty good range and at $70 he would be looking to add to his portfolio.
Although their flight was successful, the stock dropped. This is a case of Buy on Rumour and Sell on News scenario. Chart shows an upward trend from late 2012. This is going to be a bit of a wild ride. If it gets above the $5 mark, there is a lot of room up to the $7 range. He expects there would be support in the $4.72 area with the next level being at $4.32. If you are a long-term holder, he would stick with it.
Chart shows a base building pattern that goes back to January, giving you a little bit of support. If you own, you could add to your holdings. Something that is a little disconcerting is the downward trend line from early 2011. On a Relative Strength basis, it is neither overbought or oversold. 6.3% dividend yield.
Has been sort of hugging its 50 day moving average. Chart shows the downward trend has recently been broken. The most important thing with gold is that the May, June, July period was quite substantive which built a bottom. If you don’t own, this could be a reasonable level to acquire, mostly because the risk/reward is in your favour.
As a basket you probably can’t get anything that is better. This one is clinging around support at around $16.40. Chart shows an upward trend from late 2011 and he can’t see too much downside, maybe $1-$2, at worse while you are getting the dividend. If you don’t own it, buy half and see what happens and buy more when it breaks out.
US Markets. We are currently just above the 2008 peak and it is hard to imagine that we are at a new secondary run from here. Feels markets are priced for a little bit of a come off, but nothing spectacular. Jury is out on what the environment is right now. Looking at some of the metrics and some of the sentiment, we are in an overbought scenario. Looking at VIX (volatility index), we are at an exceptional low level. There is a good cause for correction, but as to the level of it, he doesn’t think there is a huge downside from here.