TOP PICK

This is about 50% US now. They were a bit early on acquisitions and in the right areas of Florida, New England, New York and New Jersey. Raised the dividend this past quarter. Put their insurance debacle behind them and marketed it really well. Thinks that in the next quarter they are going to split the stock 2 for 1. Yield of 3.76%. One-year target of $100 ($50).

TOP PICK

Recent acquisitions make it half US and half Canadian lumber. Canadian side, in BC, goes to Asia. The purchases of lumber mills are all in the southeast US. Good balance sheet. Family has announced they are renouncing their multi-voting stock, so the company is now open to a possible takeover. Feels that $15-$16 would be the takeover price, which could be bonus.

TOP PICK

Natural gas. Going to double production over the next 12-18 months so that by the end of 2014, they will be producing twice what they are now. Good entry point because price is a little soft due to storage filling up in Alberta and the AECO spot has gotten hit. Expecting $42 a year from now.

N/A

Markets. Canadian market has been moving up over the last couple of months, better than the US for the 1st time in 1.5 years. Energy is cheap and all oil needs to do is go sideways or down a little from here and there will be good earnings, which will help our market. In financials, we have seen banks already do well and raise dividends. Materials is the one that drags us down lately. He is quite underweight materials and thinks he will stay there for a while. On interest rates, he expects we will see a mild taper, probably $10 billion as opposed to the $20 billion previously suggested. In certain sectors, we might see a relief rally after next week when we know that it is no worse than we think it is.

HOLD

This is his only gold holding. Likes their production growth. Thinks gold is weak into the taper and maybe after. Longer-term he feels it has an NAV of over $10 and it will get there in time. Thinks it will grow through a flattish outlook and would be a buyer if gold drops to $1200 again and stocks go way back from where they are. $5.25 would be a place to add.

N/A

Gold. Sees this as weak but would see $1400-1450 in 12 months. A little bit higher from here but not $1600-$1700. As long as the economy is okay, there is not much reason for gold to go way higher.

COMMENT

It needs to grow because the valuation is quite high. There isn’t much of a dividend. This is one of those that is priced for perfection. As long as they can grow like they are doing currently, the stock is okay. If it never misses, there will be a pretty sizable dip and that might be an entry point.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

What is interesting about this is that they sold Rite Ade recently so they have about $500 million in cash. Then you have the Loblaw’s (L-T) and Sobeys’s, Safeway. Metro is saying they could do something maybe. He thinks it is possible that Metro can buy this company. He would not want to buy something just for that though. This one is on his watch list for $17.50.

COMMENT

Manitoba Tel (MBT-T) or Telus (T-T)? The market has now changed a little bit in its outlook since interest rates have started to rise. On the equity side, you can’t just buy something for yield anymore because the stock price might go down because we need a higher yield to price the stock in a higher interest rate environment. Therefore, you need yield plus growth. Today, Telus has better growth than Manitoba Tel.

COMMENT

Manitoba Tel (MBT-T) or Telus (T-T)? The market has now changed a little bit in its outlook since interest rates have started to rise. On the equity side, you can’t just buy something for yield anymore because the stock price might go down because we need a higher yield to price the stock in a higher interest rate environment. Therefore, you need yield plus growth. Today, this has better growth than Manitoba Tel.

COMMENT

Excellent flow results coming out of the 1st well from Stela. There are 4 being drilled. This justifies the $3+ NAV so it is one of the cheapest. You are paying about 1.5X cash flow which is ridiculously cheap. But, it’s North sea so it is riskier and it is $20 million a well. This will be quiet now for a couple of months.

HOLD

A Junior mine in northern Ontario, which has a graphite deposit of 99% pure graphite so they don’t have to spend money on an upgrader. Has been a great performer. They are waiting for the 43101 resource in October and a PEA in the 1st quarter next year. That will help to grasp numbers as to how big this resource really is. Now we just need the drilling and size to confirm and the stock will lift again if the number is good.

BUY

This is doing a consolidation of 1 for 5 and turning itself into a dividend company after an acquisition at the same time. A little expensive on a multiple basis but management has a very good track record and expects you will see pretty good cash flow growth. He would agree with a $2 target over the next 12 months.

COMMENT

Dependent on the price of silver, but at the same time it is a royalty company with fixed costs of roughly $4.06 an ounce. It will be profitable, but how profitable will be totally dependent on how high silver goes. Would prefer this one to owning silver itself. Thinks there is some growth here over time. Well managed.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 15/12. Up 11.32%.) Still likes. Pulled back with the interest-rate adjustment. Fits into his definition of yield plus growth. Thinks there is 8%-10% of earnings growth and they’ll raise the dividend over time.