Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and John Stephenson commented about whether SGY-T, CVE-T, CNQ-T, CFW-T, FRC-T, LEG-T, EGL-T, PRY-X, IMO-T, WZR-X, BNP-T, KRN-T, NKO-T, BIR-T, BNE-T, IAE-T, CPG-T, CNE-T, STO-T, ZWU-T, SAP-T, NG-T, PMI-X, SU-T, MCP-N, LTS-T, PGH-N are stocks to buy or sell.
It’s a tough story. The chart has nothing redeeming. High dividend and people are wondering when the bottom is coming. You have to look at a point on the charts and say it is past where you are comfortable holding it and then get out. He does not know it if it will turn around any time soon. Tax loss selling still to come so there is more downside.
Educational Segment. Employment Situation. In Canada we got a monster Canadian job number last month. He thinks there is something wrong with the data series because it doesn’t swing that much, so he doesn’t trust current employment numbers. In the US we know there is a big problem. 1in 6.5 people are on food stamps. How is that economy booming? Corporate margins are the best they have ever been because they are laying people off. From 1940 there is growth in the labour force but in the last decade it has leveled off. Forget them kicking the can down the road on the fiscal cliff. They have to make a lot of reforms and they are not making the hard choices for the next decade. Markets will go up and down. P/Es on dividend stocks are going way up and that is not sustainable. You have to be an active trader.
Markets. You are seeing demand destruction in the US in energy and you will continue to see that. Longer term you will see $95-$105 oil prices. US looks like weak growth and China cannot drive global demand. Thinks the government did the right think in saying we are open for business in the oil patch but not for sale. Now the more likely consolidators in Canada will likely do better.
Markets. Italy is the most indebted in Europe in US dollar terms. Thinks people in Europe will vote for less austerity and that would be tremendously disruptive. If bond returns go more than 6% there, it will be stress on the markets. If the EU lets Italy go, then Spain would be next. If they can’t grow they can’t fix this thing. The next few weeks could be pretty plain sailing for investors and the US should kick the can down the road. When Q4 earnings come out maybe the markets go for a new dip next year.