This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

He's angry with their recent oily acquisition, just as people are warming up to natural gas. He sold. Can't agree with the company's strategy.

Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult…

It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…

HSE-T + CVE-T: Stay after the merger? He does not own either one. He understands the merger makes sense. There are a lot of cost savings that can be found. He prefers CNQ-T, PXT-T and one of his Top Picks today. He prefers these to HSE-T. If the sector bounces back you could get an…

Trucking and logistics primarily to the oil and gas industry. Well run. Tough business. When oil does well, this one does very well. Good dividend. You could own it here, but he'd rather own an oil business instead.

He's bullish on nat gas, with the proviso that it depends on the weather (always the Achilles heel). Lots of positives:  AI, data centres, US doubling LNG export capacity between now and 2030. Really good acquisition recently -- a natural fit, bringing down costs, hedged price of nat gas. Trades at material discount to US peers.…

Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research QEC is a very small oil and gas company with market cap at $94.27M. QEC had a flat year in terms of price in 2023 but did display some volatility. Both revenues and net income margins had negative growth in Q3. The balance sheet looks…

Owns shares, and has suffered share price depreciation. Europe pricing very hard on business. Company is going to have to re-evaluate Europe assets. Better options in the energy sector for investors. 

The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…

(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.

Has become the go-to Canadian natural gas name, and for good reason. Attachie will add to its growth, and incremental FCF will result. Most FCF is being returned to shareholders. Several decades of inventory. Very conservative management and board. Very strong balance sheet. Long-term exposure to rising natural gas prices. He's also bullish on its production…

(A Top Pick Sep 29/23, Up 19%) Has sold some shares, but still owns. At current oil price, company able to buy back shares. Debt free company that is hitting all target metrics. Great management team will good long term outlook. 

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate this seller and renter of modular workforce units as a TOP PICK.  Bookings and revenues in rentals are up over 15%.  Quarterly cash reserves are growing, while debt is retired and shares bought back.  It trades at 20x earnings and under 2x book.  We recommend trailing up the…

It is suffering much more than energy stocks in general. If it breaks $6 then buy for a swing trade.

Take the tax loss? Huge disappointment, not operationally but on the share price. Typifies an out-of-favour stock:  Canadian mid-cap with hair on it. Last quarter had no hair, beat expectations, paid down debt, generated lots of free cash, bought back stock. Deep value, mispriced, too cheap to sell. He's waiting, but patience is being tested.

Oilfield services firm that has big fracturing technology presence. Horizontal drilling and shale boom not as strong. Very dependent on energy prices. Lots of assets that must be carried on the books. Not investing at this time. 

Bought at $8.50, now at $6.64. Sentiment remains challenged in the space (a common theme today), even though the Energy Index is up about 20% YTD. People are hiding in large caps, with few funds coming to small- or mid-caps. Hard to see it outperforming. Yield is 10.7%, pretty hard to replace. Not a name…

They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.

They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.

Some people own it for M&A takeover potential. He doesn't like to do that. It's a market where interest in small caps remains very low. Not hitting enough radar screens currently. Pursuing growth, so more modest cashflow. 

Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name. You'll be saved…

He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.

Its takeover by a bigger player should attract institutional players, and should lead to a rerating. He's been buying the parent company CHRD, now a full position of 4%. Deepest inventory in the area of any producer.

One of the largest fleets of generation 3 and 4 deeper coil tubing. Two businesses: coil tubing and tools. Both are being run efficiently. Margin pressure in the sector. Great little story that will be a big beneficiary of LNG drilling. No debt. 5-year bull market target of $3. 2023 will be a pivotal year…

Expecting merger with NextGen. Will continue to own shares. Large deposits of Uranium. Very bullish on upside for company. 

Comes down to what you're trying to achieve. A sleepy, not-get-rich-overnight name. He's happy to collect the yield of 7.6%, well funded down to about $50 WTI. Eventually, you'll get modest upside relative to commodities going up. Trades at half the valuation of PSK (he doesn't understand why).

Company share price is reflective of lack in interest in small energy names (market cap too small). Company needs to sell itself in order to generate value. Better options for investors out there. 

A mico-cap that had some major issues. He would not look at this at all.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research IPO is a small cap oil and gas company. It is down about 10% over the last year, but has been trending up year-to-date. IPO also pays out a high yield at 7.7% and is cheap on a forward price-to-earnings basis at 7.6x. Revenues have…

It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.

Not a good investment with current management team. Other energy companies available with better opportunities.

(A Top Pick Nov 22/23, Up 20%) Remember to buy a sector when it looks terrible, not when it's up 80-90%  ;)Still likes it but not as much, as drilling is weaker than thought. Selloff in oil, drop in rig count. More efficient drilling ultimately means less work. Continues to de-lever. Everyone's excited about natural…

He's bullish on natural gas for next year, though not now because of bloated storage and too-high US production. Suffers from challenges of a smaller company, just not hitting the radar screens. See his Top Picks.

Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. STEP is down 35% this year, but up 59% in 52-weeks. Profit taking is probably part of the issue here. It did beat estimates in the 4Q, but the sector has been quite weak, and the company has recently seen two downgrades by brokers. EPS is supposed…

SU vs. CNQ He doesn't generally participate in the E&P space, as it's hard to make decisions based on the underlying commodity price. Bigger picture, still huge demand for Canadian oil and gas on world markets. EVs won't take over anytime soon.SU had been an underperformer and a laggard. Management changes have resulted in turning…

Has held up well at 8x PE, even with nat gas prices low. Pristine balance sheet, using it to invest in equipment that reduces carbon footprint, which gives it a marketing advantage. One of the more volatile among the service companies. Yield is 3-4%.

(A Top Pick Nov 20/21, Up 69%) Liked it for assets. Ultimately sold to Whitecap.

Tricky. Natural gas stocks have been on a tear the last few days, super hot, on fire. Extension of the Trump presidency. Certain investors are feeling FOMO if they don't own energy. Valuations are still compelling.Thematically, he's bullish gas. Still exposed to weather, and though it's been warm up till now, there's a cold forecast.…

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research EPS of $0.11 missed estimates of $0.13 and revenues of $42.41M missed estimates of $44M. Its FFO increased by 29% against the previous quarter, and its operational efficiency improved by 3% in average production. It demonstrated drilling cost reductions in the quarter, however, against the…

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.

Homebuilding stocks in the US have been going straight up, but Canadian forestry stocks have been going the other way. WFG has done the best in holding its share price.IFP and CFP have really started to bottom on the charts. He hasn't done enough digging to know who has a better earnings profile. But looking…

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.

Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…

Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.

(Top Pick Mar 8/11, Down 65.85%)

Ranked as a 4 in his system, which is high praise. Holds management team in high regard. Wonderful asset allocators and patient investors. Recently entered into royalties for renewable energy.

Wallbridge Mining to buy Balmoral It depends on your timeframe--some will take the premium in Balmoral and grab the profit. He expects in two years that the deal will benefit shareholders with lower costs. The Abitibi is a great gold district. If he owned this, he'd hang onto it.

Just completed an expansion. A bit more debt leveraged. Fortunes rise and fall with copper, especially with a recession scenario. China's problems aren't helping. Should be back to $3 in next 3-6 months, $4 in a year. Operational issues in Q1. Second half should improve. Sit tight. You could dip your toe in Q4.

Attracted to it, but doesn't own or recommend. He rates it a 5, which is neutral. Gold and copper in Mongolia. Data doesn't justify labeling findings as "massive" discoveries.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The sector and in particular the company has shown good momentum. Good cash flow off-sets their stretched balance sheet. Cheap on valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Spike today might be due to US hurricane. Whole sector can be volatile. Nice run since July, when homebuilders picked up substantially. Getting above $19 was significant. Big spike today. Don't want to see it break below $15. Will have trouble between $22-25, so might spend some time there chewing through the supply (as people…

“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research It is certainly not beyond possibility. Bloomberg default ratio is 7.36%, which is very high for that indicator. Cash flow was negative in the last quarter, yet 12-month interest expenses were $36.1M net. With its small size and Cuban and other issues, we are not…

Does not own shares. Prefers companies companies with lower costs and higher return on capital. 

The preferred shares, Series E Has a rate reset spread at 330 basis points, and pays a dividend yield of 15%. Something happened to the dividend last August. Doesn't know this name well. They are selling some retail assets to add stability to the stock.

Recent addition into portfolio. Stock not as cyclical as perceived. Backlog of work projects very good. Work and revenue is guaranteed from the customers. Recent earning announcements very strong. Recent dividend increase by 50% very strong. Company growing to a size where larger investors start to invest. 

Not doing too much right now. Starting to trend higher, was $150 in 2022. Short term, nice upward trend; we're hitting breakeven on the year, outside of dividends. If it can get back up to $145-150, good possibility it could catch up to the better-performing banks. He owns CM and TD.

CIX vs. BAM Are very different asset managers. CI's balance sheet is not good. Prefers BAM, but shares have risen to a high valuation. Great managers and earnings stream (asset management fees).

Expecting further price appreciation. Has been doing business with family for 4 generations. Second generation of business leaders very strong. Good way to get exposure to micro resources sector in Canada. Very good capital allocation. 

Both companies have done quite well and both are cheap with secure dividends. It has been a good year for the sector but they may not get the same returns going forward.

They own U.S. hotels, a high-risk, high-reward stock. He's bearish on hotels, which is struggling with labour costs and keeping labour. HOT.UN has done a good job restoring vacancies, in the low-70s, though their peak was in the 80s. However, they've made up the balance on their hotel rates. Their balance sheet is slightly higher,…

(A Top Pick Nov 13/20, Up 33%) Has started buying back shares and paying dividends. Financials should do well as the yield curve steepens. Valuation is not as compelling as before. Middle of the pack. Has moved to US banks and non-financial banks in Canada.

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Up 13%) He'd buy it again. Nice value stock. Nice yield. Trading at discount to book. Would benefit from rising interest rates, which he expects. Cheaper than all the banks.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research It is not looking good, considering more than $900M in debt and cash flow of only $37M in the last 12 months. Interest expenses were $73M, nearly twice cash flow. It does of course have assets, but it is not a seller's market right now,…

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research Hut 8 is traditionally a bitcoin mining company which now has a few main operating segments; digital assets mining, managed services (infrastructure development), and high-performance computing (AI cloud computing). The majority of its revenue is from bitcoin mining (59%), 18% is from managed services, and…

(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.

Invests about 80% in industrial warehouse REITs, with the balance in office and retail. Elevated cost of capital, so it's in secondary markets. Above average leverage, resulting in a higher distribution yield. Limited growth because of cost of capital disadvantage. A yield play, not a growth play, and growth is what you want in this…

Would recommend selling. Dividend rising too fast. Earnings not quality. Better options for investors. Current price presenting value to sell. Brookfield a better option. 

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research AIF saw a sharp drop following its Q3 financial results reported in early November. The stock's struggles have been driven by the slowdown in the real estate market and particularly, concerns regarding commerical real estate. Valuation has now come down to a more reasonable 18.3x…

Recently retired investor has 14% of portfolio in this name, looking to trim. Make sure it stays above $86. A range of $5 is not going to break the bank 😉  But $86 is where you might want to start trimming and looking at some of the underperforming banks such as TD. He can't imagine…

Likes real estate in general. In particular, likes those that are building their businesses; not the ones that are just collecting rents, paying dividends, and going sideways. CEO is great and is investing in the company. Turning around. Sector will benefit from lower interest rates. Looked at this one, likes it, but not liquid enough for…

(A Top Pick Nov 13/23, Up 55%) Insurance doing exceptionally well. Recently bought ZZZ. Things are chugging along well. Dividend raised from $10 to $15, significant increase. Still at a discount on price to book. In client TFSAs. Very keen on it.Just as with BRK, its insurance business takes in premiums, which get invested in…

(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Up 15.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with IGM has achieved its target at $44.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $35.50) to $39.00.  

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research MOGO is a microcap fintech company which offers a comission free stock trading app and other apps providing personal loans. MOGO has more than 2M members, $9.9B in annual payments volume and a ~13% equity stake in crypto exchange WonderFi (WNDR). It is certainley an…

(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.

Despite being better diversified, US banking space can be more volatile than Canada's. Achieves more capital growth then an ETF with a covered call strategy. As well, consider some of the active options as offered, for example, from Hamilton.

HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…

In his income portfolio. He's cautious on Canadian energy, as the politics are not agreeable to energy right now, but he still wants to participate. Biggest 20 energy companies in the world. Good way to play in a diversified way with one holding.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

Covered call gives you a boost to income, even more so because the space is volatile. Yield is about 8.5%. If you compare it to XEG, the total return over 3 years is 157%, compared to 94% for NXF. Total return should be your focus, unless you really need the income. MER is usually higher…

The go-to energy ETF. He's bullish energy, particularly Canadian. Is market-cap weighted, so you get more exposure to big names like Suncor and less to smaller names.

Investing in India. He uses ETFs. Good one-stop way to get at the India 30, which has done well over the last couple of years. Over the next 30 years, India will be where China was. Very exciting area, investors should own.

(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.

Excellent way to get exposure to Russell 2000. Will see gains in performance based on lowering of interest rates. Would recommend holding for long term. Lower interest rates will also benefit the small companies who rely on borrowing money. 

He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.

Despite being better diversified, US banking space can be more volatile than Canada's. Achieves more capital growth then an ETF with a covered call strategy. As well, consider some of the active options as offered, for example, from Hamilton.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. No longer backed by Aurora. Multiple attempts to redesign stores. Multiple products sold at steep discounts. Deteriorating margins.

A star in Canada due to great execution and lack of competition. Shift to multiple price points is a winning strategy. Carved out a niche in Canada.

(A Top Pick Mar 19/24, Down 3.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with DOO has triggered its stop at $80.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  This will result in a net investment gain of 9%, when combined with our previous recommendations.  

Sideways trading range, as have US auto parts. Nothing too exciting, unless perhaps as a value play. On the sidelines.

It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.

Stores may or may not be impacted by Ontario government rolling out more retail locations. The Pellers stepped down from the board, possibly planning a bid to privatize the company but he's not really sure.

(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.

Volatile, avoid. Comeback in revenue since Covid. Fundamentally weak, broken down. Slightly beat on revenue, but missed earnings. Trading sideways. A big rebound would take more than the company's capable of at this point. (Analysts’ price target is $12.58)

It's never done anything and has disappointed shareholders. He owned shares 10 years and sold it because he got fed up with its lack of progress.

Is fairly illiquid, but profitable and pays a 6.6% dividend. Price targets are high, so there's a runway ahead. But two-thirds of the business is concentrated in Canada, and a big risk is if song royalties rise. It's profitable though. He's watching it.

A global leader in intelligence transportation systems, like weighing trucks on highways. Are gradually becoming a tech company; recently developing AI tools to analyze the ton of data they've collected to help with road safety. Insiders are buying a lot shares and they have strengthened management. Lower-margin contracts are coming off soon. This space will…

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

Bought at $48, again at $70. Pitfalls would include chasing or buying too much. Other risks are not following it and not having a plan. Acceleration is really strong. Good volume along with the buying, which is supportive. Reaching a bit of a limit right now, which may be profit taking, and may pull back…

(A Top Pick Oct 07/20, Down 7%) Not long after making the recommendation the stock benefited from a lot of ETF buying. They exited on the strong buying on a much higher gain. Since then, the ETF buying has evaporated and the stock price has come back down.

Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.

It was popular in the dot com years. Its service isn't as needed now since Internet speed is way better.

(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.

EXE vs. CSH EXE operates long-term care facilities which require a lot of capital, while CSH is more senior homes. CSH has been divesting lower-return investments to become more of a pure-play. You can charge whatever rent in a market if there's no competition. The seniors' population keeps growing. CSH is paying down debt, which…

They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research EPS of 80c missed estimates of 85c; Revenue of $660.5M missed estimates of $678.1M. EBITDA of $157M beat estimates of $152.8M. Revenue rose 5.3%. EBITDA rose 6.8%. Guidance was largely maintained. The manufacturing segment is seeing some customer wariness and less bookings. It is a…

(A Top Pick Sep 19/24, Down 1.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with FTT has triggered its stop at $38.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. 

Not interested. Cheap for a reason. De-risked balance sheet, compelling dividend, seemingly low valuation. Not in fast-growing industries. Publishing's in secular decline. Packaging has had tepid growth.

It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.

He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.