Harley Davidson (HOG-N)

She likes this. It has had its hiccup’s here and there. They continue to expand and they try new areas. They have put a lot of effort into trying to develop a motorcycle for city use. Motorcycles are going to stay popular, and this one is best of breed. You can’t really go wrong with this.

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 16.7%.) Sold his holdings in June. Recreational vehicle sales tend to be very highly correlated with employment and household formation, which have both been strong. What really affected them was the US$, as they derive about 25% of their sales from outside of the US, but manufacture everything in the US.

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 36.3%.) Got out last July. The issue is not their North American business, but the strength of the US$ and their international exposure, which accounts for about 30% of sales.

It is interesting and it is an iconic brand. It is cyclical. It has a couple of head winds right now: the currency (US$ appreciation) and there is a demographic trend which is favouring the cheaper smaller bikes. However, they are not in a growth market and are competing for market share with Indian Motorcycle. Feels that there are better places to be.

This is a consumer discretionary type of item. You don’t have to have it, it is pure luxury. 70% of revenue comes from the US. The challenge is that the next generation is not as keen on buying a Harley as the previous generation. They need to go through some sort of transformation in terms of creating products that will appeal to the next generation. The stock has done quite well since 2009, and thinks a lot of that was the rebound from the meltdown in the 2008 crisis. He feels there is some downside potential for this company.

Likes it because the valuation is a lot more compelling than it has been. The stock came under pressure with concerns of a higher US weighted dollar. He thinks the concerns are overblown. It is consumer spending and household formation in the US that will drive it. The entry point is very attractive.

Has not been doing that well. Longer term the trend is upwards. It should do well from February to May of each year. Technicals are currently mixed.

16 times earnings, 1.8% dividend. 70% of sales from US. US sales are highly correlated to the housing market. The stock pulled back a bit because housing growth was flat. They will face some issues with the strong US dollar. They rationalized their expenses, getting rid of some of the workforce. You will do well with it longer term.