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The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Harley DavidsonHOGTOP PICKOct 20, 2020

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly HOG is showing technical breakout signs, which we see testing $36 – over 27% upside. The new Chairman, Jochen Zeitz (who tripled Puma’s share price over a three year turnaround) has slimmed down the product line, and shaved $100 million from annual costs. The urge to return to open roads due to the pandemic is expected to boost sales when new models arrive in 2021. We would trade this with a stop-loss of $23. Yield 0.28%. (Analysts’ price target is $31.73)

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)

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$29.03

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 22/22, Up 10.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG has triggered its stop at $42. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 18%, when combined with our previous recommendation to cover half the position.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 22/22, Up 27%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG has achieved its objective at $48.50. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $34) to $42. If triggered, this would result in a net investment gain of 18%, when combined with this recommendation to cover half.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We again reiterate HOG as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings beat expectations and support a robust 27% ROE. We continue to like that it trades at only 9x earnings compared to peers at19x and at 2.5x book. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. It has managed to keep cash reserves level, while buying back shares. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $34.00, looking to achieve $48.50-- upside over 17%. Yield 1.5% (Analysts’ price target is $48.13)

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jun 02/22, Up 15.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK is progressing well. We now recommend trailing up the stop (from $28) to $34.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate HOG as a TOP PICK. The company last month announced a two week production shut down out of an abundance of caution relating to a third-party supplier component. That period has passed now and the stock has rebounded back to where it traded prior to the announcement. We continue to like that it trades at only 9x earnings and 2x book and has a dividend backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. It has been using cash to aggressively retire debt early and buy back shares. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $28, looking to achieve $51 -- upside over 40%. Yield 1.7% (Analysts’ price target is $51.12)

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TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly The company is interested in spinning off its EV line, which could bring good value (think Tesla trading at 80x earnings). The company is currently trading at 9x and recently reported earnings support a healthy ROE of 27%. Supply chain issues and microchip shortages have slowed sales growth, but earnings still met expectations and it is sign the demand is outstripping its supply -- a good thing. The company has prudently used some cash to retire debt. It's small dividend is supported by a payout ratio under 15% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop loss at $28, looking to achieve $52 -- upside potential over 40%. Yield 1.64% (Analysts’ price target is $52.16)

DON'T BUY

He likes what they have in the stores, but they need to appeal to young customers. Pass.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 20/20, Up 30.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG has triggered its stop at $38. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. Combined with the previous recommendation to cover half, this results in a net investment return of 27%.

PARTIAL BUY

Every few years HOG has a new CEO to right the ship. This time, the CEO is smart. He hasn't recommended this for many years, and bought a small position.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 20/20, Up 63.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG continues to do well. We are now recommending to trail up the stop (from $29) to $38. If triggered, this would all but guarantee an investment return of 27% when considering the recommendation to cover 50% previously.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 20/20, Up 24%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our recent TOP PICK has already hit our object at $36 following release of earnings. The new CEO has made an impact, cutting expenses 26% over the quarter. There is still work to come, however. Be that as it may, we are recommending taking 1/2 the position off and moving the stop-loss up to the original purchase price of $29. (Analysts’ price target is $31.73)

COMMENT

She likes this. It has had its hiccup’s here and there. They continue to expand and they try new areas. They have put a lot of effort into trying to develop a motorcycle for city use. Motorcycles are going to stay popular, and this one is best of breed. You can’t really go wrong with this.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 16.7%.) Sold his holdings in June. Recreational vehicle sales tend to be very highly correlated with employment and household formation, which have both been strong. What really affected them was the US$, as they derive about 25% of their sales from outside of the US, but manufacture everything in the US.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 19/15. Down 36.3%.) Got out last July. The issue is not their North American business, but the strength of the US$ and their international exposure, which accounts for about 30% of sales.

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