Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)

Exited in October, putting capital into names with clearer catalysts. Growth expectations really reset, with just one brand name carrying the ball and high expectations. 

Chart's interesting now. Stock's sitting right at the 200-week MA -- often a very strong support line for higher-quality names. He'd watch it.

Fell 49% in 2025. It never recovered from tariff worries. The company's growth engine, Hoka, has slowed in recent quarters. Trades at 16x PE, so most of the pain has been baked in.

Their momentum is still not that good. Prefers Nike.

If you have gains, take half of the table. Their last quarter was bad and he's wondering what's going on there. Is down 35% in the last 6 months. He'd like to believe it will bounce.

It peaked last January at $224 after rallying in 2024, and has been downhill this year. At first, the problem was the Hoka brand's slowing growth. But they reported an excellent quarter last week. It beat top and bottom line, though expectations were very low, including 20% revenue growth YOY. Key was the international wholesale business rising 30% YOY. Also, UGG boasted 19% revenue growth YOY and gained market share. The tariff overhang ended when a trade deal with Vietnam was struck, albeit at a 20% tariff what till cost Deckers $110 million. Trades at only under 18x PE. Cheap.

EPS of $1.00 beat estimates of 59c; revenue of $1.02B beat estimates of $1.00B. EBITDA of $215M beat estimates of $127.1M. But DECK provided a weak next-quarter forecasts and declined to provide a full-year forecast due to economic/tariff uncertainty. Deckers' fiscal 1Q sales view for 7.8-10.3% growth could still prove conservative given better-than-expected 4Q results, with sales up by mid-single digits on stronger performance at Ugg. Any upside hinges on Hoka momentum persisting globally and reaccelerating in the US. Hoka is forecast to rise by low-double digits, with Clifton 10 and Bondi 9 launches driving demand, while Ugg's spring styles and growing men's traction could support mid-single-digit brand gains. Gross margin rose 50 bps in 4Q amid higher levels of full-price selling for Ugg, yet persistent freight headwinds, channel mix shifts and higher promotions may weigh on 1Q margin. That, coupled with tariff impacts, could drag gross margin down 250 bps in 1Q. Pricing and cost actions to mitigate pressure may begin to aid margin in 2H. The big decline on Friday brings the year to -50%, and valuation to 16X earnings. Cash flow remains good. It has a strong balance sheet. We would be getting more interested here into any more declines.
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They report Thursday. In the shoe business, Skechers got a bid to go private, On Holdings delivered a super quarter, and Dick's Sporting Goods paid nearly twice the price to buy Foot Locker. Deckers are excellent operators. Their last quarter disappointed, partly because one of their brands ran out of inventory. He doesn't expect another weak quarter. Buy ahead of their report.

He just bought it. Is -40% this year while operation income remains strong. He always buys consumer discretionary when everyone hates it, like now. 

Shares slid 20% after reporting last month, despite a big top and bottom line beat, but issued weak quarterly guidance due to weird inventory issues. Shares have fallen even lower since then or -45% since that report. This may be worth buying on weakness. Much prefers ON.

Leading footwear and apparel, founded 1973. Explosive growth in running shoes segment. Highly profitable lifestyle brand UGG boots. Very disciplined inventory management. 

Direct-to-consumer channel very strong and driving margin expansion. Global demand for premium footwear is rising, this name can capture that market share. Robust balance sheet, good management execution. Sees ~15% earnings growth. 

Short-term comments and guidance caused stock to drop to the 200-day MA, but he's not worried longer term. Good chance to buy a quality name. No dividend.

They just reported Q3: the largest and most profitable in history, beating sales, all-time high gross margins of 60%, and a strong EPS beat. Their brands did well, like Hoka up 23.7%. But then management gave a disappointing forecast for this quarter only 1% revenue growth (11% previously) with Ugg sales to decline and earnings -55% YOY. The strong momentum they had will end, disappointing the street. The stock was priced for perfection. Problem was that Ugg sold so well over holidays that this brand is now sold out. Also, Hoka's growth is slowing; Hoka is a big reason why people own these shares, but such growth expectations are too high. Sales of Hoka should normalize after they restock. Plus, the company has several big launches coming, and have $2.2 billion in cash and zero debt.

He bought this May 1, and up 52%. It's still cheap. Trends look favourable over the holiday season. Hold until at least May 2025.

Because of today's strong jobs report, people will buy DECK's products into the holiday season.

In consumer discretionary companies, the state of the consumer isn't necessarily the most important factor. Remember what DECK bought a company 10 years ago for $1 million and this company did $1.8 billion in sales over the least 4 quarters.

These outdoors stocks are fashion, and DECK has a shelf life of another year.