Stock price when the opinion was issued
They just reported Q3: the largest and most profitable in history, beating sales, all-time high gross margins of 60%, and a strong EPS beat. Their brands did well, like Hoka up 23.7%. But then management gave a disappointing forecast for this quarter only 1% revenue growth (11% previously) with Ugg sales to decline and earnings -55% YOY. The strong momentum they had will end, disappointing the street. The stock was priced for perfection. Problem was that Ugg sold so well over holidays that this brand is now sold out. Also, Hoka's growth is slowing; Hoka is a big reason why people own these shares, but such growth expectations are too high. Sales of Hoka should normalize after they restock. Plus, the company has several big launches coming, and have $2.2 billion in cash and zero debt.
Leading footwear and apparel, founded 1973. Explosive growth in running shoes segment. Highly profitable lifestyle brand UGG boots. Very disciplined inventory management.
Direct-to-consumer channel very strong and driving margin expansion. Global demand for premium footwear is rising, this name can capture that market share. Robust balance sheet, good management execution. Sees ~15% earnings growth.
Short-term comments and guidance caused stock to drop to the 200-day MA, but he's not worried longer term. Good chance to buy a quality name. No dividend.
Shares slid 20% after reporting last month, despite a big top and bottom line beat, but issued weak quarterly guidance due to weird inventory issues. Shares have fallen even lower since then or -45% since that report. This may be worth buying on weakness. Much prefers ON.