A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Lithium and EVs. Interesting space, almost an ecosystem. You have miners all the way through to the battery side. He likes BYD on NASDAQ, holding it in individual accounts. Look at PLUG. For OEMs, look at Ford and GM.

The effect of rising bond yields and effect on certain stocks Certainly next year. All are surprised that yields have stayed low. Next year, this could all change. Last October, the Fed was buying $80 billion in treasuries. By March 2022, the Fed will cease buying. There will be volatility.

A CNBC survey says that financials are the top sector to buy now. S&P's performance will depend on the 7-8 megacap tech names. GDP will slow. A more hawish Fed, higher inflation and rising interest rates will challenge tech stocks. She doesn't own healthcare, but has financials and industrials as well as small-caps. The small-caps in the last two sectors will do better than the large-caps.

Bond yield is spiking today Rising yields are the big story now. He expects the 10-year yield to move 10-15 basis points higher in coming weeks, which will rattle stocks in biotechs, Cathy Wood tech stocks and hypergrowth stocks until earnings season.

55% surveyed predict less than 10% gains on the S&P for 2022 Going into 2022, there's a ton of pressure on coorporations and consumers to keep contributing to the economy. Corporate profit margins are at all0time highs, and consumers don't yet seem worried about inflation. He's holding low expectations for 2022. Headwinds will be a little stronger in 2022 when volatility will rise. The market is moving towards defensives (in consumer staples and healthcare). He won't offer an end-2022 target, but he will say that 2022 will be a much harder market 2021. Consumers will have to endure inflation and corporations will pass through inflation and labour costs. If so, then the bull market will continue, but he won't place a target.

Stocks are taking a pause today, and we've seen this many years after violent moves up (or down). In the first week of December, we averaged 50 million derivative contracts, but only 37 million/daily since then. Yesterday was the lowest day of the year. Investors want to sit back and pause now. Sudden news about Omicron and will definitely effect markets though. January will see more normalcy with earnings season.

55% surveyed predict less than 10% gains on the S&P for 2022 In the first half of 2022, we'll see volatility, but fade in the second half. He predicts a double-digit rise in the S&P. Supply constraints will loosen by the summer and the markets will kick in. Latter-2022 will look like 2021's healthy rotation. Energy will continue to rally. From the time Biden took office, energy has soared. The financials will be interesting, could explode up, depending on the Fed.

2022 outlook He's holding more cash heading into year-end. Investors are in wait-and-see mode. Like the Fed, he is data-dependent. He barbells cyclicals and value stocks with quality tech. Probably in 2022, growth stocks will surprise upwards beccause of labour shortages while incomes will jump. Will income growth overpower inflation? The consensus says it will, and he agrees. Expect volatility in Q1-2022. Inflation will remain on the back-burner. If the Fed tights more than expected, all bets may be off about income vs. inflation. For 2022, he's focused on the consumer who is in great shape now with $2.6 trillion in excess savings on the sidelines while earning more money. So, he likes consumer stocks and energy, specifically those with more beta. He's abandoning high price tech vs. value tech. Also likes healthcare where he's starting positions internationally. He expects the markets to rise single digits in 2022, but active managers will do better. Own stocks with huge pricing power and cash flows and reasonably PE's.

The first 4-6 weeks of 2022 will be the decision time for many investors to see how aggressive the Fed and inflation will be. If Omicron isn't so aggressive, that may ease supply shortages. Heavy cyclicals (energy and materials) vs. high-growth stocks: to pile into in either is risky, so she advises a balanced approach. Big cap tech could do well in coming days, and oil could move above $75. You need to be positioned differently in the first half vs. the second half of 2022, but that also happened in 2021. Likely you need to change positioning going into 2022, which will happen in January.

Despite Omicron, people are still investing in this market and will continue into 2022. He thinks the Omicron won't be as bad as we thought. So , expect higher earnings (PE) and buy big tech. Also, healthcare will be another growth area in 2022.

Tech and semis look good today as well as last week. There's a lot of activity both in macro among the SPDR calls and heavy options activity in individual stocks like MSFT, AMD and Nvidia. These buyers expect this to be a strong week and not only rallying today. This could be the final rally for the year. We're in a choppy market and this will continue. There have been big bounces in semis and crude oil, however trading volumes have normalized. People are getting a little bullish now.

Inflation bifurcation in 2022. In 2021, everything went up in price because there was lots of market liquidity. But as the central banks rein in liquidity and governments cut back on spending, inflation will still exist, but some things will go up in price and others will remain the same or go down. As liquidity's removed, luxury items won't do as well this year as last. Inflation will keep going up for necessities, as demand for them will continue. You'll have to be particular about which sectors you want to be in.

Tech stocks in 2022. Tech stocks have dominated the market. Market breadth has narrowed. Investors are focusing on large cap tech names. Right now, investors think about switching horses from tech. If interest rates start to tick up, you might see tech start to take a back seat. Some of the cyclical sectors might do quite well at least in the first part of the year. Some of the cyclical sub-sectors like metals and mining have been doing quite well, but not a really strong performance, and this could change in the new year as investors make some changes. Healthcare might be another area to benefit from outflow of funds from tech.

Time to buy gold miners? Thinks so. Gold miners have done terribly this year, and are tax loss candidates. Seasonally, gold miners start to pick up this time of year. Gold miners are spinning out all kinds of cashflow. Negative sentiment, but sometimes investors start to refocus in the new year and may notice that these names are on sale. Seasonal tailwinds can help push them up at this time.

REIT seasonality. REITs usually do well from March to October, but this might start earlier this earlier, especially if markets turn down. Wait until February/March.