A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

BUY
Coal. An absolutely terrific time to Buy coal companies. Commodities are going to do well in this environment. Likes Alpha Natural Resources (ANR-N).
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The market has been going up for a while, especially since US announced the quantitative easing, which causes commodity and stock markets to go up. The US$ has been weak. But in the last couple of days there has been a reversal. It caused the stock market to reverse today. Thinks QE2 is off base. Companies are flush with cash and don’t want to borrow it. They need consumer confidence. What is need is fiscal policy. His stock picking methodology is just staying the same.
COMMENT
Preferreds: Owns preferred shares for some of his taxable income accounts. He only owns some preferreds. Lower percentage than bonds. They trade like junk bonds. It’s getting harder to find good quality preferreds.
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He has made money off gold stocks. It hit 1400 today. 3 things the US wants to do is inflation, lower currency and introduce austerity measures. When the gold bubble bursts there wont be many exits. It will be brutal. He’s 10% in Gold with half of that in ABX.
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Gold isn’t going up so much as paper currency is going down. It is very positive when the US$ goes up at the same time as gold. Gold $1300-$1500 by year-end. He’s not looking for a pullback but it certainly could happen. Loves silver. Over 650 years, Silver has been 1/16 th the price of gold. It is 1/50 th now, so silver has quite a way to run.
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He has been as bullish as anyone but he is cautious now. Economy things look fine. What’s driving the market is QE2. Would prefer that the market was going up because of good fundamental reasons. On a global basis CEOs are very bullish. He thinks we get into a normal recovery and then in the long term, the commodities should correct. He has lightened on gold and oil stocks; he is bumping financials.
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Supply and demand fundamentals in Canada are excellent, except in Calgary and Toronto. Single digit vacancy rates. People are going for yield and REITs are a yield play. Investors have to be careful that they are not fooled by yield. It should be judged on the cash flow. He looks at total return. New accounting rules (IFRS) will affect real estate. Beginning in January, you have market value accounting, not book value. It will highlight where value is lower or higher than share price. As trusts convert to corporations, he is seeing money flowing into REITs.
TOP PICK
Canam Group Convertible Bond 6.25% 10/31/2015. If you get a bond, get one that has some sensitivity to the equity market. If the economy picks up you have some upside on your bond. Risk is that it is a small company and if the economy tanks again, you have a problem.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Nov 10/09, Up 10.50%) Canadian Real Return bond. Get paid to wait. Not as attractive as they were but the only insurance product that pays you money while you wait.
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Markets. You always follow the money – you never fight the fed. There is a recovery going on. There is positive change. This is about as good as it gets in investing. There are so many things going on and people are still very, very worried. That is a perfect bull market. This is exactly what happens at the start of a bull market. We are in a roaring bull market. The key things that drive stocks are (1) earnings – he follows S&P earnings; (2) valuation – S&P trades below historic long term average; (3) super strong balance sheets within corporations.

COMMENT

Options. He is always a seller of options. Buying is pretty risky.

COMMENT

Markets. If he has a worry, it is about the bond market – a bubble. There is always a bubble when there is easy money. We have been in a bull market for bonds for 25 years. Bottom line is that interest rates are made artificially low by the fed. Within the next year, he thinks we will get an interest rate sock in the long area. We know that with all the money that has been printed, we will get inflation. With companies, the cash flow can keep pace with inflation. A bond can never grow. The coupon is the coupon. IBM issued bonds to buy back their stock, for example.

COMMENT

OPTIONS: Never sell options more than one month out because you get the best premium per day. If you sell options you are harvesting money. He only writes options on blue chips. The more volatile the stock, the more premium you get. His stats average of 30 days, 3.5% out of the money, paid 3.5-4%. You should expect to make 2-4% per month.

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Elections in the US yesterday. You can safely say that legislation will be harder to get through. There will be some element of gridlock in US politics. Like Canada’s minority government, things will get done. He is still focused on the emerging market as the significant driver. He has only a reasonable overweight (15%), though. Has a lot of companies that are exposed to emerging markets. Is bottom up and looks at companies, not countries, but ends up being 35% US and increasing. There are great opportunities in the US stock market. A Year and a half ago he got permission to currency hedge but is not doing it right now. Canadian dollar will struggle to stay above parity.
COMMENT
Gold: If you look at what it has done, it definitely has momentum but it is hard to analyze it fundamentally. With the rest of the world devaluing, there is only one place to store your wealth. Gold is the answer. If you believe this is going to continue, then gold is likely to rise. He uses Gold as a hedge.
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