A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. We are in a long-term bull market, 5 to 8 more years, for the US. Thinks it starts with a bull market in the US$ and then spreads to all US assets. Every day there is a piece of good news, certainly for the US$. Sees the Cdn$ trading down to $0.90 or even $0.85. When world investors catch on, people will allocate portions of their portfolio into the US$ and US equities. He sees a power shift in Canada from the West Coast back to Ontario.

Markets. Bond market just sold off enormously. We were at 2.2% on the US 10 year and then in the last hour it was basically “let’s take some risk off the table” so the money flowed out of equities and into the bond markets. The selloff in the bond market is now starting to accelerate so we have had a big reversal in the last hour or so. Therefore, equities remain the place to be. You want to have some fixed income in investment grade corporates, perhaps some inflation protected government bonds as well as some good dividend paying stocks.

How would I achieve the best results in using a small percentage of a portfolio in emerging foreign markets? Using a global diversified front year markets fund would be a good way. You could use iShares MSCI Frontier 100 (FM-N) or Guggenheim Frontier Mkts (FRN-N).

Markets. We have had a very strong move since the bottom in 2009 and he market is now fairly valued. It is hard to make money now in the market. A more concentrated portfolio is recommended. Bottom up approach. 1. How much you have to pay for the asset. 2. Balance sheet - no credit stories. 3. Management; and 4. Overall operating environment. Both Canadian and US environments are fairly valued, slow growth.

REIT Market. There has been huge demand. Has been a great play. But everything comes to an end. Possible end of QE3 has affected them. She has only one REIT, BOX.UN-T.

Markets. Had run up a lot and he had been hoping for a pullback, which never happened. A lot of positive things going on in the US. Relatively low rates, low unemployment rates. However, long end of the curve, continues higher which tells you something about what is going on in the world. Inflation slowly coming back. Companies continue to make a reasonable amount of money and he feels dividend yields will continue to go up. However, there is a specific type of stock that is going up. Dividend paying stocks and companies that continue to buy back their stocks are the ones that are doing incredibly well. Valuations of some of these companies is getting very, very high which is what people should really think about.

In the next year do you see a 3%-3.5% 10 year U.S. Treasury? If so, what impact is it going to have on utilities and dividends? Expects there will be higher yields over the next several years. One of the problems is that people concentrate on the short end of the curve which the Fed has the ability to change. It is really the long end of the curve, 10-30 that makes a difference. Doesn’t think rates are going up substantially so if you see a large pullback in any these companies, he would look to buy them.

Is there any arbitrage advantage in holding Canadian stocks out of the US exchanges because of the currency valuations? He would feel that any advantage would be arbitraged away by sophisticated traders who buy the currency, etc. Brokerages charge you a lot of money for foreign exchange so make sure you are not getting ripped off.

Markets. Looks like bond yields are going up and we are going to touch 2.50 on the 10 year US treasuries and perhaps something similar in Canada but he doesn’t think they are going to go up enough in the short term to cause much damage to stocks. Technically, markets are overbought. Bull/bear ratio is close to 3 and that traditionally calls for a correction. Margins are at record levels which is worrisome. However, price/earnings ratio based on forward earnings on the S&P 500 is 14.3 which historically has been between 7 and 22 since World War II. Looking out 2 to 3 years, he is very bullish.

Gold. Likes gold but thinks we have to see some basing and we are in the process of seeing that between $1300 and $1400. Because of the continuous printing of money, which has been a total debauchery of the currency, at some point, they are going to have to have a new currency system and gold will play a key part and the price of gold will be very much higher.

What would your favourite stock be assuming the Keystone pipeline gets approved? What immediately springs to mind would be Crescent Point (CPG-T), mainly because you would see a narrowing of the spreads. Also, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). TransCanada (TRP-T) would have a bit of a run.

Bell Canada (BCE-T), Telus (T-T) or Rogers (RCI.B-T)? There are a couple of interesting things that have happened in the last few days. First of all Telus trying to buy Mobilicity. He is not sure this is going to work. If it doesn’t, then the question becomes what happens to these marginal players. If the marginal new producers fall by the wayside, then the government is going to have to rethink its competition policy. Of the 3 companies listed, he feels Rogers has the best potential growth rate at this time and is probably the cheapest in terms of P/E ratios. BCE is a well-run company but growth is not there is much as there is for the other 2.

US economy is slowly picking up. The housing sector is coming back. There is a rumour that they've found a reservoir of oil, containing 50 billion barrels which will make the US energy independent. This is great news for the government and for consumers as it will lower gas prices. The US dollar will be gaining against the Canadian dollar so it's best to invest in the States so you get the gain from the investment as well as the gain from the US dollar rising against the Canadian dollar.

Markets. S&P 500 is looking a little frothy and getting away from the 200 day moving average by about 15%. Doesn’t happen often but when it does, you are looking at a 100% drop in the S&P 500. Don’t be afraid of the inverse ETF (shorting the S&P) for a very short term trade. Will feel a lot more comfortable once the summer is over.

Markets. Thinks the current rally has legs. Foremost is the excitement with the economy which is picking up. Whether this is because of housing prices, which are strong or the employment gains, these are all leading to consumer confidence and better economic outlooks for the US. This is spreading down to corporate earnings, which are strong. Companies continue to do buybacks. There may be pullbacks, but if so, they should be bought.