Opinions
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
BMO S&P/TSX Oil & Gas ETF
ZEO-T
HOLD
Sep 18, 2017
$10.500
Stock price when the opinion was issued
E.T.F.'s
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COMMENT
Challenge with buying US ETFs that participate in MLPs is that they're not favourable to a Canadian investor. Withholding tax of 15-30%. Be very, very careful on the MLPs. If you want gas exposure, think about XEG or ZEO. Most bang for the buck would be the HED, with small cap exposure. Small caps have more operating leverage if you're confident gas prices will rise. HOG is a bit more conservative.
E.T.F.'s
PARTIAL BUY
An equal weight to play the canadian energy sector. Long term he is not bullish but in the medium term, there is underinvestment in energy and this should keep oil elevated. Until OPEC opens the flood gates, it is a good way to play the energy space on an equal weights basis. Trade this name.
E.T.F.'s
WEAK BUY
Energy ETF Commodities are sensitive to the cycle: warning. Suggests XEG or HXE, both market-cap weighted in oil producers, but they are dominated by Suncor and CNQ (over 50% of these ETFs). For more diversification, look at equal-weighted ZEO-T. But he prefers HUC-T because it gives you commodity--and not commodity stock--exposure. For all of these, be very, very careful--there could be severe drawdowns in energy if the economy falters in the next 12 months.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
oil There's underproduction of oil and supply constraints. Also, US oil reserves were drained before their elections and now needs to be filled whenever oil dips to $70. So, oil has a floor and there remains demand. A good sector to own, especially if China opens next spring. XEG holds Canadian oil stocks, and is market-cap weighted, including CNQ, Suncor and Cenovus among its top holding. ZEO is an equal-weight, so offers a little more diversity. And HXE is the cap-weighted ETF like XEG, but it doesn't pay a dividend. So this is good outside an RRSP. For midcap oil, look at NNRG, but charges a higher MER. It depends on your tax preference and the contents of each ETF.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 26/24, Down 7%)
Not devastating, but there are other things to do with capital. With the current macro economic situation, keep this allocation smaller. Follow through in the markets and some outperformance in energy would be encouraging. It's probably going to be a volume game, not a price game.
E.T.F.'s
In the next couple of months there may be a little more upside. At the beginning of the year the stocks were overpriced. He is going to trim when it gets back to the high end of its trading range. Don’t add to it now but you could buy on pullbacks.