Stockchase Opinions

Paul Gardner, CFA Yellow Pages 8% Conv Debt 2022 YPG.DB-T TOP PICK Jul 31, 2018

A restructuring story. Retiring debt so quickly, in 2 years, only the convertibles will be left. Getting a high yield in a less risky way. Doesn’t want to own the stock, just own the debt. Yield is 8%.

$98.750

Stock price when the opinion was issued

communications media
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TOP PICK

The Convertible Debenture 8% maturing 2022. Yellow media has underperformed and lost revenue and EBITDA margins, and has struggled transforming itself from Digital media. With this bond, you are getting compensated 8%-9% rate of return. Also, there is not much outstanding debt, but all their free cash flow has to go down to repay debt.

TOP PICK

(Convertible 8% 2022) Yellow is struggling and reorganizing, but still makes money and has free cash flow. It's a bond, not equity story. They're actively paying down debt. He's confident they'll pay it all down. They slashed their costs with free cash flow annualized around $80 million. 75% of their growth comes from digital hits, so revenues are decaying which is a concern. Their margins are still around 28%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 31/18, Up 15%) These were the convertible 8% bonds. Following the reorganization, where stock holders got blown out, free cash flow yield is over $100 million per year. The debt is almost paid off. He loves the yield and the 95% chance you get your money back. The bonds trade at 102 percent of face value. He thinks the value should be closer to 110 percent -- especially given their low debt and strong cash flow.
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 14%)Convertible debenture He's suggested this before. He was a senior debt holder with YPG was restructuring. YPG still has very high free cash flow and EBITDA still hovers around 35%. They transition to digital which was costly. They've since reduced that cost structure, paid down most of that debt and have free cash flow. What's left are convertible debentures, so he's front of the line to get paid.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 20/19, Up 12%) Now that Yellow Pages has reorganized and stabilized their business, there is very little debt. This convertible debt is almost risk-free now. Their business has not necessarily done great, it creates free cash flow (with a 32% margin) and pays an 8% yield. He expects the bonds to be called in the next year.