Stockchase Opinions

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) Tyson Foods Inc. TSN-N TOP PICK Nov 17, 2020

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly In a market that is getting tougher to find upside value, TSN also pays a good dividend with growth potential. The meat processing company trades at only 13 times current earnings and its dividend is backed by a 33% payout ratio. Recent earnings showed a 40% increase in operating income and EPS of $1.90 -- $0.70 above expectation. They also hold $3.2 billion in cash. The dividend has grown by 36% annually over the past five years. We would trade this with a $55 stop-loss, looking to achieve $79 -- over 20% upside. Yield 2.59% (Analysts’ price target is $79.30)
$64.025

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT
It reports Monday. We'll likely hear about the chicken shortage and the price of corn and food inflation.
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 14/21, Up 23.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with TSN has achieved its $80 objective. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering 50% of the position and trailing up the stop to $75. This would all but guarantee a minimum investment return over 19%.
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 14/21, Up 15.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with TSM has triggered its stop at $75. We recommend covering any holdings at this time. Combined with our previous recommendation to cover 50% of the position, this results in a total investment return of 19%.

BUY
Has a supply chain and distribution channels (important during all these cyber attacks) and trades at a decent PE.
COMMENT
They report Monday. Food inflation is hitting everyone hard. Tyson will hurt the bull case for certain; they always do.
DON'T BUY
Produces about 20% of U.S. meat, but is slumping, down 37% from its all-time February peak when it reported a super quarter: 24% revenue growth and 48% earnings growth. But just one week after that, analysts downgraded it based on deteriorating margins, food inflation (weaker beef sales ahead), and beef and chicken gains that were already built into the stock. They still delivered a good quarter in May, but cut volume growth forecast. Summer saw shares still falling and bad headline like a price-gouging investigation by NY attorney general. Also were chicken operation problems. August quarter: Sales growth slowed, were weaker margins and cut their full-year guidance to zero growth. September: new CFO who was soon arrested for public intoxication. More problems. Last month's quarter came in mixed, including missed EPS. Inflation and a weaker economy means consumers will trade down and not buy high-end meat, which will hit Tyson.
DON'T BUY

It reports Monday. Must listen to their conference call to determine food inflation. But this stock has disappointed so often in the past.

PARTIAL BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

TSN pays a good yield of 4%, and management has grown its dividends nicely over the past 10 years. Sales growth is expected to be modest in the next few years (low single digits), and it generates a good level of operating cash flows. Its margins have contracted over the past 12 months, and it has missed on its five past earnings results. Its balance sheet is strong, with a good cash balance of $706M and an equity position of $18.9B. It has its strengths and operates in a defensive sector. We would be comfortable with this name for income, but we do not expect much in the way of growth in the near to intermediate term. 
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DON'T BUY

They report Monday. Costs for beef and chicken have declined, which should lower their costs, but is TSX organized enough to profit from it? TSN has been a major slump. He doubts it.

BUY

It could benefit from the popular wight-loss drugs, because those drugs actually remove protein as well as fat. Those who take these drugs must consume more protein, which is how Tyson benefits.