The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLTPAST TOP PICKAug 18, 2026

This relies on the quarterly re-funding announcement in the U.S., which is the day after the U.S. Midterms, Nov. 4. This is less about the next rate hike, and more about will the Treasury cut the supply of long bonds to the market? Though painful, this is one of his favourite trades now, but this will give you a great total return in a few years.

As a firm, they're contrarians. People ask him when will interest rates stop going up? He has an odd answer:  Rates are going up because the most profitable, highest-FCF-generating companies in the US moved from being providers of credit (hyperscalers put all their extra cash into treasuries), to now borrowing money off balance sheets like drunken sailors on weed.

So you have the normal borrowers in society, plus former savers, now borrowing. This is a fever of people investing in AI. No wonder the price of $$ is going up, if you believe in the laws of supply/demand. If you assume that the fever will break at some point, now might be the time to start betting on bonds and dollar-cost-average your way in over the next year or so. 

Priced right now as though stocks will never turn sour and the AI bubble will never break.

TLT will have withholding tax, so that will affect the yield.

In the hedged version of ZTL (ZTL.F), the cost of hedging is embedded in it and typically comes out of the yield. Today, he'd own the one with the .F extension and be fully hedged on his currency exposure in the US market.

The underlying assets are yielding the same thing, but the difference comes from the items noted above.

See today's Educational Segment.

All government bonds. Challenged, with rates moving higher this past year. Bear market for bonds over the past 5 years. He's not quite ready to go out 20 years. Safer timeframe would be 7-10 years. Getting attractive, but hard to say where the bottom is.

When stock markets break, this is one of the best investments. Could yields rise from 5.25% in US long bonds to 6%? Absolutely. It could be painful to step into this now, but he owns a position where he's long long bonds and using put options to protect the portfolio. He wish he knew when this trade will work.

Big managers in the US are leaning in to duration here and going further out. It's looking attractive at these rates. The big piece is the inflation story. If inflation starts going higher, rates won't be as attractive and you're going to get hit.

At his firm, they write options on fixed income. They can better manage a position that way. He'd be OK with a position in this, but only take a very small slice. You're pushing your duration up to 30 years, and there's a lot of uncertainty between now and then.

This trades long bonds, so yes this approach works. In a risk-off market, duration as an asset class will do very well. He expects economic weakness, but doesn't know when. This pays nearly a 5% dividend. TLT may not be the best one though, because there may be a double-taxation issue (US and Canada).

If you want growth from your bond portfolio. But these don't have great tax treatment. Depends on what kind of investor you are.

(Note the short timeframe.)  He's not bearish on the market, just wary, so he's being defensive. The US market has more risk on the equity side than normal. His target remains around $90, still an OK place to make a couple of bucks. See his Top Picks.

On every dip to the $85-86 range, he's been maximizing his duration exposure into the recent weakness. He's overweight right now.

There's a narrative developing where Trump wants to issue less coupon debt and more bills to finance his big, beautiful bill. That manipulation of the yield curve could spark a very strong rally in TLT. If you think the economy's headed for a hard landing, TLT should see a good rally. Thinks it can get back to $95-100. Because of the monumental supply, not sure we can get higher than that.

See his comments in the Educational Segment.

(Note the short timeframe.)  He wanted to trade the trading range. He never uses physical stop losses, as you can get whipped out. It broke down from $85, so then he counts a minimum of 3 days -- yesterday, today, and he'll see what happens tomorrow. If it stays down, on Tuesday (US markets closed Monday) he'll sell the position.

Some trades don't work out. The best traders lose money on trades, but it's how much you lose that's important. You take a bit of a haircut and you move on. Rather than hanging on and hoping, while you watch it go down and down.

The yield has been flat in the last two years though shares have been volatile with the bond market. The bond market is broken long term as a buy-and-hold; you have to be an active bond manager given inflation's impact.

US long-dated treasuries. Very good compliment to your growth stock portfolio. During crises, bonds spike because it becomes more about return of capital rather than return on capital. Long duration means it's much more volatile; for example, in 2022-2023 there was a peak to trough loss of about 40%. See his Top Picks.